The vaunted “Title Window”. It’s like the Apple Watch’s battery life, a Kardashian marriage, or that special first time with your significant other. Full of hype, full of promises, but in the end it just doesn’t last that long.
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This is the reality of the NBA. “Eras” end abruptly. “Dynasties” become draft picks. Call it the fallacy of the title window. This is a fallacy now being used to describe the Warriors. Don’t get me wrong, this year’s Warriors team is a legit contender; they’ve entered the rarified air of 2005 Tiger Woods: a level where picking them vs. the field isn’t an insane choice.
Characterizing the Warriors as a team beginning their title window is the ultimate fan bait. Nothing excites us like the future and no future is brighter than one with the words “title window”. Yet, as Warriors fans we must tread lightly. Time after time, the NBA has proven itself to be a year by year league. Unless you’re the San Antonio “We the exception!” Spurs, your title window is always shorter
than you think, just ask the record book.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat
This season those matchups are forgettable: three teams who didn’t make the playoffs, and one who is down 1-0 in its first round series. Last season those matchups were the Western and Eastern Conference Finals. This isn’t a critique of the three teams who crumbled from the NBA’s Final Four to the Draft Lottery, but an example of the volatility of the National Basketball Association. Crazy things happen. OKC’s megastar Kevin Durant who averaged 77 games played the past seven seasons, only played 27 times this season. Indiana’s best player Paul George suffered a horrific injury effectively ending Indiana’s season, and Miami got hoodwinked by a homeward bound King.
Let’s rewind to the 2010-11 season. The OKC Thunder are on the cusp of a title window that appears so prosperous it’s being described as the next decade. In the East the Chicago Bulls, winners of their conference and driven by a 22 year old MVP, are labeled a group that will bring rings to Chicago for the first time since Jordan. Four seasons into their title window, the Thunder have one Finals appearance, no rings, traded away a Top 5 player, and may soon lose Durant and/or Westbrook. If the Bulls don’t advance to the Finals this season, that’ll be four seasons of no Finals appearances for Derrick Rose & friends, and everlasting questions about Rose’s health.
Yet, those unfulfilled title windows aren’t the exception. Miami Heat fans expecting “not 4, not 5, not 6, not 7” championships with Lebron, got 4 seasons. The Kobe-Shaq duo many expected to dominate the 2000s was broken up in 2004. Cleveland seemed assured of a decade long title window until their hometown hero left in 2010. Dwight ditched Orlando. Nash’s Suns never reached the NBA 
Finals. Heck, at one point Bulls fans temporary lost Michael Jordan to another sport. The point is, there are no guarantees in basketball. As rich as the future may feel, the only thing assured in the NBA is the next game.
Yes, the future of the Warriors seems golden. Four of the five starters are 27 or younger. Coach Kerr minimized the amount of minutes played by his go-to guys throughout the regular season, and the team’s chemistry is the antithesis to the Kobe-Shaq Lakers or the Orlando Magic team led by Dwight.
Yet, the the future in professional sports is synonymous with variables. Bogut’s and Iguodala’s longevity could become a problem. Harrison Barnes essentially being the west-coast version of perennial underachiever Jeff Green could prove to be the Warriors’ downfall. Klay could continue wearing Antas, the NBA’s least reliable shoe -I’m only slightly kidding about this being a possible problem. The unexpected problems are even more frightening. The Warriors could run into a scorching hot team in the payoffs, the new-arena could throw the entire franchise out of order for a season, or the team could be “banged up” at the wrong time.
I fully acknowledge that I’m dealing in a world of “What Ifs”, but that’s the point. The entire NBA landscape is one huge “What If”. While the phrase “title window” exists in a realm of certainty, the NBA exists in a realm of continual question marks. This isn’t a disparagement of the Warriors’ future, but rather an acknowledgment of the NBA’s history.
Although the Warriors’ future affords no guarantees, the Warriors’ present is one of true parade possibilities. Push those chips to the middle of the table, it’s time to go all in.