Tip Off: 12:30 PM (PST)

Projected Starters

New York                                                                  Golden State

PG –  Steve Nash                                                      Stephen Curry

SG –  Grant Hill                                                         Monta Ellis

SF –  Jared Dudley                                                   Dorell Wright

PF – Channing Frye                                               David Lee

C –    Marcin Gortat                                                 Andris Biedrins

Scope the opposition: Get your Suns fix at Valley of the Suns.

Preview: The Golden State Warriors (2-2) will be leaving the confines of California to take on the Phoenix Suns (1-3) on the road today. Early in this abbreviated season, the Suns are a far cry from the high-scoring juggernaut they have been in the Steve Nash era.

Alvin Gentry’s team is scoring a mere 89.2 points per game (25th in the NBA) so far this season on 40.7 percent field goal shooting (24th in the association). The Suns’ apparent decline on the offensive end can be traced to two issues: their lack of transition game and Steve Nash.

The fear going into games with the Suns has always been that they would push the pace to the point that they would just run teams off the court. Their willingness to run on every possession as well as the team’s overall speed essentially always resulted in track meets. However, it seems that Alvin Gentry has made the decision that for the sake of preserving his players in this condensed schedule, and more specifically Nash, that the team would only be selective in their break out opportunities. As a result, Phoenix is scoring 10.3 fast break points per game (25th in the league).

Steve Nash is unquestionably one of the best point guards the league has ever seen. His ballhandling, court vision, decision-making, willingness to get his guys going and shooting ability make him one of the best talents ever at the position. Thus, when Nash runs a pick-and-roll with his teammates, he tends to complicate the decisions of the opposing defense. If the opponent traps him, he will either find the open player or split the trap and get a lay-up, if it’s a hard hedge, Nash will manage to turn the corner, suck in the defense and find the open 3-point shooter and finally if the defender goes underneath the screen, well Nash will just take the open jumper and convert it.

This makes Nash a nightmare match up; except that so far this season the Suns’ floor general is averaging 8.3 points per game on 31.3 percent field goal shooting and 31.3 percent 3-point field goal shooting. Translation: until Nash gets his shooting stroke going, teams can concentrate on stopping his teammates as opposed to trying to contain him. Kid Canada has only scored in double figures once in four games, and has also only converted half of his attempts once (coming against the New Orleans Hornets).

On defense, the Suns have been relatively good so far this season as evidenced by their 93.3 points per game allowed (ninth in the NBA) on 43.1 percent field goal shooting (10th in the association).

Phoenix gets teams to shoot the ball from beyond 16 feet by sagging into the lane in their pick-and-roll defense. Indeed, the Suns surrender 25 shots per game from 16-to-23 feet (third most in the league) but only allow a 33.3 percent conversion rate from that distance (information tracked by Hoopdata), which is the ninth best mark in the NBA. Needless to say, by forcing teams into taking long-range jumpers and contesting them properly, it creates a situation where the Suns can get a few stops here and there.

Mind you, the Suns’ defense is not without its flaws; and there are two big ones that Golden State will look to exploit today:

1. Phoenix surrenders 14 offensive rebounds per game (28th in the league).

2. Force Steve Nash to defend the pick-and-roll and you are bound to get open looks in the lane. The Suns will concede the jumper from beyond 16 feet, but if the ballhandler attacks Nash quickly, he will get into the lane for a score or simply find the player cutting through the lane for the easy attempt. Thus, the Suns give up 43.5 points in the paint per game (25th in the NBA) according to Team Rankings.

Stephen Curry should have a big game against the Suns and David Lee should not only have a good rebounding day, but he should also get some second chance scoring opportunities. In the irony of ironies, a Warriors-Suns battle will probably be decided by the team that plays the better defense.

Questions or comments? Feel free to leave them in the comments section or you can contact me by email at [email protected].