The meaningless games have mercifully come to an end and the Warriors are on the cusp of beginning one of the most anticipated seasons of basketball in recent memory. Which makes this a prime opportunity to extrapolate what we’ve glimpsed in the Dubs’ 6-1 pre-season to make well-educated (read: mostly wild) prognostications for what will transpire on the court this season.
Put on your Nostradamus hats everyone, here are 10 random predictions for the upcoming year:
1) Kevin Durant will lead the Warriors in scoring.
We’ve heard the talk: Klay — in all his catch-and-shoot glory — has a chance to be the squad’s leading-scorer since he’s the guy that has to adjust the least to KD’s arrival. And if not Klay, then Steph: you know, the guy that won back-to-back MVPs and averaged 30 points a game last season. But let’s not forget that this is a group of unselfish players who enjoy watching their teammates succeed. The Steve Kerr-era Warriors are a pass-happy bunch that has always reveled in their teammate’s success, be it a Thompson 37-point quarter, a Stephen Curry incendiary three-point hot-streak, or Brandon Rush pouring in 20 inexplicable points. Now let’s also remember that four of the Dubs’ core members went out to the Hamptons to recruit Durant to the team. Imagine if you and your buddies spent all evening begging that one reluctant homey to go out. When that guy finally agrees to hit the club, wouldn’t all of you make sure he constantly has a drink in his hand and is having a good time? The Warriors are going to spend all season making sure their new recruit has the ball in his hands, especially when he starts to look a little NBA Jammy.
2) The “Super Villain” status won’t make it past Christmas.
When Lebron James joined Wade and Bosh in South Beach I hated the Heat too. I thought they were taking the easy route to a championship and that LBJ was too callous in his dumping of Cleveland. But here’s the thing: despite my distaste for the team, every time the Heatles were on TV, I tuned in. I tuned in because I wanted to see greatness on the court. Well guess what, NBA fans are going to tune in when the Dubs are on TV (and they’re going to be on TV a lot). And when people see the joy and fervor with which this team plays basketball — not to mention the style and explosiveness in how they play — the fans are going to come around. The scattered boos for Durant might linger in pockets of OKC or Boston or LA, but eventually that noise will be drowned out by a cascade of cheers for another impossible 24-foot shot drained in an opponent’s grill.
3) Draymond Green (and the Warriors) will be fine.
Despite all the hand-wringing after Ethan Strauss’ explosive (and incredibly well-reported) piece on ESPN, by all reports, Dray is a good guy who cares about basketball and the success of his team. Strauss is as clued in as any writer on the ins-and-outs of this team so if he says there are worries about Dray’s indiscretions within the organization, I tend to believe him. But then again, these are worries about speeding, a snapchat snafu, an alleged slap, and being too hard on teammates. If these red flags were to continue to flap in the Bay Area winds for another year or so, I might start to panic, but right now this feels like when everyone complained about the newest iPhone having a protruding camera … and then they all went out and bought iPhones. Maybe people just need something to worry and nitpick about.
4) Patrick McCaw will average over 20 minutes a game.
Steve Kerr isn’t usually wont to hand over minutes to an unproven rookie, but the UNLV product has a few things working in his favor. He’s versatile and springy on defense; he’s a smart passer that’s always eyeing soon-to-be-open teammates; his good-enough shooting won’t collapse the offense; and perhaps most importantly, the Dubs are short on tall wings. The 20-year-old already reads the game well and makes next-level passes: ones like when he takes a lunge towards the rim not to get a closer shot for himself, but to draw the help defender an extra half-step toward him, thereby freeing his teammate up for the jam. McCaaaaaw will be a fun swooping sub-plot all season.
5) Three-point baskets: Steph will make fewer than 300, KD will shoot above 40% and Klay will hit at a 45% clip.
Steph broke his own record for most threes in a year with a staggering 402 bombs last season. With KD soaking up a few of those shots each game, you’d have to imagine Steph does a little bit less heavy lifting while increasing his assist average to 7 or 8 per contest, numbers similar to his first few seasons in the league. Hard to believe, but Durant sports a career 38% three-point percentage and is under 40% for the last three years when averaged out. But with a buffet of open three-pointers coming his way for 82 straight games, the Slim Reaper is going to see an incredible uptick in his shooting efficiency. Klay shot almost 44% from deep two seasons ago and hit at a 42.5% clip last season. Given the bevy of open shots he’s going to be getting off the attention paid to Steph and Durant, expect the Klay Hive to be buzzing at an unprecedented clip.
6) Javale McGee will start over five regular-season games and ducktails will resurface on the back on Bay Area heads.
Starting center Zaza Pachulia is 32 years old and has never played a full 82 games in his 13-year career (he averages a shade over 68 per season). The Warriors coaching staff has made no bones about their plan to rest players during the regular season, and their backup centers are David West (someone born in 1980) and two younguns still working their way back from injury. Add that up and there is a good chance we are about to be treated to four All-NBA players and Javale what’s-he-gonna-do-next McGee on the court at the same time. Shaqtin-a-fool aside, McGee is still only 28 years old, which is old enough to have learned from past mistakes but young enough still to swat a few shots out of the air and sky for a handful of thunderous lobs off the pick.
7) Andre Igoudala will win sixth man of the year.
Of all these predictions, this is the one made with the least confidence. Voters tend to give The Super Sub award to scorers like Jamal Crawford and Lou Williams. But Igoudala deserved the accolade last year and I expect voters to right their wrong by giving him the trophy this spring. Andre facilitates the second unit’s offense, he guards the opposing team’s best perimeter player, and once a game he’s good for one of those steals in transition where he swirls his arms about like a ceiling fan and swipes the ball away from a would-be driver. Andre Igoudala is a joy to watch.
8) The bench unit will be better than expected.
After Igoudala and Shaun Livingston, the Warriors’ bench depth gets murky with unproven young guys (McCaw, Kevon Looney, Ian Clark) and aging veterans (West and Andy I-can’t-believe-he’s-still-on-the-team-I’m-gonna-have-a-heart-attack Varejao). But the demise of the second unit is overstated when you consider that Durant will be around to bouy the offensive punch in Steve Kerr’s staggered rotation. Add in a come-back year from Ducktail McGee, at least one young guy playing above expectation, and sustained growth from Clark (who shot over 50% from deep in pre-season) and there’s the making of a potent second-unit.
9) The Warriors will beat the Vegas over (67.5 games).
The MJ-led Bulls own the best-ever three-season record at 203-43 . To best that, the Dubs will have to win 64 games this year. They’re going to easily smash Chicago’s two-decade record when they win 70 this season. Outside of a major injury (and maybe even with a major injury, as long as it’s not to Dray) this team isn’t going to lose more than 14 times. Even factoring a few sloppy games, schedule losses, cold-shooting nights, an evening in South Beach, and actual losses to good teams, the Super Death Lineup isn’t getting beaten 15 times in 82 outings.
10) The Warriors will win the NBA Finals rubber match against Lebron and Co. in June.
If not for a flailing Draymond Green nut shot, or Harrison Barnes horrific shooting, or Kyrie Irving’s insane three-pointer, or Steph’s gimpy knee, the Dubs would likely be reigning back-to-back champions. Yes, Cleveland is running back a fantastic team with championship pedigree. And yes, they still have a potent Lebron James; Kyrie is just now coming into his prime; Kevin Love looks reinvigorated; and they get a full training camp under coach Tyronn Lue. In any other year, the talented, deep, battle-tested Cavs would be heavy favorites to repeat. But this isn’t any other year. The Warriors just replaced Harrison 5-of-32-in-the-last-three-Finals-games Barnes with Kevin Durant, a four-time scoring champion that also plays defense with Plastic Man’s arms. To beat the Warriors, Cleveland will have to be perfect on both sides of the ball. They’ll need another year of vintage Lebron. They’ll need one of Tristan Thompson or Love to stick with KD in the Mega Death Lineup, and they’ll need to hope Steph is again playing with a hobbled knee if they want one of their bigs to hang with him on the perimeter. That’s a lot of needs.
The Warriors? The Warriors and their fans just need to imagine Draymond snaring a rebound out of the air, with Steph, Klay and KD flanked on his sides and Andre streaking down the middle. Imagine the devastation to come. That’s a five-man group with no equal in the current iteration of the NBA.
Let’s get the season started.