Jun 9, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) talks with Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) during the first quarter in game three of the NBA Finals at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Trying to decode Game Three feels like quite the challenge. As Ethan Sherwood Strauss said, it had chapters inside of chapters.
It started well for Cleveland but like a few other portions of this series the dominant team did not have a lead that reflected the difference on the court. LeBron James roasted Harrison Barnes early and it took a little over five minutes for Coach Kerr to bring Andre Iguodala in to put out that fire – when the sub happened, LeBron already had six points and Cleveland had a seven point lead. As Nate Duncan and I talked about on Monday night, the Warriors should consider starting Iguodala or bringing him in incredibly early. I understand the desire to pair Barnes with Curry as much as possible for offensive purposes but their primary objective has to be limiting LeBron.
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Surprisingly, the major development of the second quarter may have been that no one got hot on either team. Excluding players with one shot attempt, only one player on either team had more points than shots in the second: Andre Iguodala with six on four FGA. Additionally, it continued the strange trend of fast break futility as Cleveland and Golden State combined for one transition bucket in the entire half-a layup by Iguodala that was the Warriors’ only field goal in the final four minutes. The Cavs extended their lead despite shooting 7/19 from the field and getting (slightly) outrebounded in the quarter.
Jun 9, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
At halftime, the Warriors still had a fighting chance despite playing pretty far from their best basketball. They made it substantially harder on themselves in the third, allowing Cleveland to shoot 61.1% from the field (they were 41.4% the rest of the game) despite only having three players that attempted more than a single shot. Kerr started the half with the starting lineup again and they were outscored by four before Iguodala made his first appearance. Granted, it did not exactly get better from there in the period since the Cavs expanded their lead to as much as twenty before bringing a 17-point advantage into the final frame.
The fourth quarter did not have some of the key Golden State players on the court but did comprise of many of the same elements that made the offense click during the regular season. David Lee’s playmaking helped get the ball moving again and the Dubs got more clean looks than they had earlier in the game. As Lee said post-game, eliminating a big late lead has to come in stages and the Warriors did a nice job fighting for each step without trying to get it all back on one possession. Stephen Curry taking and making insane shots certainly helped too. When asked what changed in the fourth quarter, Curry replied that the Warriors “became the aggressors” which does a nice job of conveying the difference between that stretch and the rest of the series broadly.
One amazing stat from Game Three via John Schuhmann is that Golden State scored more than twice as many points per possession with David Lee as the screener on pick and rolls than all of the other Warriors combined. This could be a small sample size issue but certainly something Coach Kerr can ride until the Cavs show they can contain it more reliably than they did on Tuesday.
The real question at this point has to be where the series goes from here. Draymond’s hurt back definitely changes the calculus if it persists and he certainly has not looked like himself the last few games. While David Lee certainly has his faults (and no one has harped on them more than I), his playmaking can fill a niche otherwise vacated by a limited Draymond in a way that Harrison Barnes cannot at this stage in his career. Lineups where Lee plays without either Bogut or Green on the floor should be avoided at all costs but they have a window where they can use the highest paid player on the team. Beyond that, Coach Kerr should be more aggressive at maximizing the windows where Cleveland sits their tough match-ups. Klay went to his regular rest in the first quarter right as Iman Shumpert left the game due to his shoulder injury. Even a minute or two with JR Smith on him could have been enough to swing momentum early in the game. Similarly, the Warriors cannot afford to play any relevant stretches with both Curry and Klay on the bench. This is a minor concern considering Steph has only sat for 25 minutes in the series so far but still worth mentioning.
Jun 9, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA;Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Defensively, the Warriors are doing a good job and I am in agreement with Klay Thompson that the improvement needs to come on the offensive end. The Cavs did convert 5/7 on second chance opportunities after going 1/11 and 3/17 on Games One and Two but allowing only six offensive rebounds and twelve second chance points is totally fine on the aggregate. Golden State could also send more help from Tristan Thompson because he still has not shown a ton of desire to score on the first shot of a possession. In fact, I would consider flipping the assignments for Draymond and Bogut when both teams are in their base lineups since doing so would give Bogut more leeway to freelance while Draymond can try to more reliably keep a body in front of Timofey Mozgov. It could fail spectacularly but a somewhat similar concept worked surprisingly well against Memphis starting in Game Four. One other thing that Nate Duncan and a few others pointed out that Golden State started doing in Game Two and continued last night was driving more for offensive rebounds. The trade-off of crashing the boards is giving up transition looks but the Cavs are not running so the downside is substantially smaller.
One other big change I would like to see is playing small early and often. If David Blatt is going to respond by taking Mozgov off the floor, that is a huge win for the Warriors. Cleveland has to run a tight rotation with so many players hurt (and I would expect Dellavedova and Shumpert to play at below 100% as of this writing) and they simply do not have the depth to play small.
As wild as this series has been, the Warriors still have superior talent even if they have not played up to it thus far. Game Four is as close to a must win as it gets without being an elimination game but the furious run in the fourth shows that the regular season offense is in there somewhere. A potentially limited Clevleand backcourt gives Golden State their best chance to win a road game this series – now we have to wait to see if the Warriors can maximize that opportunity on the biggest stage of their careers.