Attention, the great Adam Lauridsen has done some eeeenteresting analysis. Mr. Legal broke down selections in the 5-7 area from the last 10 drafts. Love the idea and allow me to piggy its sturdy back.

By Adam’s reckoning, this particular strata has yielded results: “On average, 2 of the 3 players picked in the 5-7 range have something to offer their future NBA teams.”

But “something to offer” doesn’t have allure. No, “something to offer” isn’t what the draft offers the weary Warriors fan. I understand what compels you to sit through Dicky V’s spittled ravings amid eternal commercial breaks. You have stars in your eyes. You want a savior to dream about, hope for, and emotionally invest in. You sucker.

So how realistic are these hype dreams? Adam again: “30 players listed above 2 are superstars (Roy, Wade), 12 are or were quality NBA starters (Curry, Love, Gordon, Green, Harris, Deng, Kaman, Hinrich, Nene, Richardson, Battier and Miller)”

I take extreme issue with the idea of Jeff Green as quality starter. Other than that, no quibbles, sound analysis all around. There seems to be a coin flip chance of landing an impact player, which is OK.

But these stats don’t have to start in the year 2000. I can move time with the click of a mouse and begin counting picks whenever I damn well please. If I start at 2046 so be it. And I’m sorry to inform you that Ellison still hasn’t bought the team at that date.

Spliced another way: Since 2002, out of the 21 picks in this strata, we have Wade, Roy, Curry, Gordon, Love, Harris and Kaman. We’re talking a 1/3 chance of nabbing a borderline-to-actual All Star. On a rookie contract, no less.  It’s better odds than Kobe Bryant hitting a three point shot, and failure would be tolerated by a fanbase that accepts losing with a Koala’s docility.

I think teams have to take that pick in any non-Kwamefied draft.  Trading for a vet tempts the ugly kind of fate.  Boston in 2007 is an exception, and I say that only because they kicked away Jeff Green—the dead horse that cushions my benign blogger body slams.

Anywhat, swapping out a top 7 pick like the Wiz did carries huge risk. The wages were that they missed out on Curry, looked stupid, and Gilbert Arenas got all “Justified.” Then the Wizards sucked badly enough to nab the best NBA prospect since Durant. Since I can’t count on the Warriors to suck badly enough to benefit from squandering top 7 talent, I say take the damned pick. The team is for sale, but its future shouldn’t be. I don’t want Cohan’s final rancid vestige to be, “We could have had player X.”