1: Solve the Harrison Barnes Dilemma
Do the the Warriors have a core of 3 or 4 players? Like all vitally important questions in life, I flip flop on this question every night.
First, for basketball novices or Glenn (Doc) Rivers, Draymond Green is unequivocally a core player in the Warriors’ long-term future along with the Splash Brothers. Green’s the optimal 3rd best player on a title contender: a defensive luminary who annually makes noticeable improvements to his game and represents both what the Warriors occasionally lack (snarling toughness) and where the league is undoubtedly moving (stretch forwards capable of switching screens on defense). If this were math class we’d say Draymond’s value and style of NBA have equal slopes because they’re following almost identical trajectories. Draymond doesn’t deserve a max contract in the NBA from a decade ago, but today I have no problem with it.
Now for Harrison Barnes, who outside of Ognjen Kuzmić, is the Warriors’ most perplexing player. Since the prosecutor also goes first and I want Barnes to succeed, let’s begin with the good…
- Barnes excels at basketball’s two most efficient plays, slashing to the basket and the corner 3. This season he’s shooting 59.3% from the right corner 3! Of players getting consistent playing time who shoot at least 0.5 right corner 3s per game, Barnes leads the NBA in percentage.
- Barnes is hyper athletic. Heck, the man was in the 2014 forgettable dunk contest!
- Barnes’ best stretches each of the past 2 seasons occurred in the playoffs -clutch!
- He’s 22 years old and possesses a top 3 nickname on the team (The Black Falcon < Mo Buckets < The Splash Brothers).
Now for those things that keep us Warriors fans awake at night, the bad…
- For all his athleticism, Barnes’ “athletic stats” are simply bad: he’s 3rd to last on the team in blocks per game, averages the same amount of steals as known defensive albatross David Lee, and is essentially a net neutral on defense (the Warriors’ Defensive Rating is 97.6 and Barnes’ is 97.8).
- His entire 2013/14 season.
- Barnes is incredibly reliant on teammates to create his shot. Last week when the Warriors sat Steph/Klay/Iggy/Bogut vs. Denver, Barnes had a staggering 4 points.
Barnes is a net zero for this team -the Warriors’ plus minus is 10.3 with him on the court and 10.0 with him off the court. Investing in young athletic wings that can shoot is almost always a successful strategy, but when Barnes’ contract expires after next season he’ll surely get decent offers from others teams based on his potential. The Warriors will have huge money locked up in Klay’s contract, Draymond’s new deal (hopefully), and Steph’s impending mega-max. Is Barnes the guy you want to spend the rest of your big spending power on?
There are two gigantic free agents slated for the summer of 2016 who might be attracted to a team of Splash & Dray: Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant. Serge Ibaka even becomes available the next summer. Harrison Barnes is an enigma that Warriors management needs to solve.