The Oklahoma City Thunder are staring at a daunting 3-1 deficit in the Western Conference semifinals after losing a tough Game 4 in overtime. Kevin Durant struggled down the stretch, which made it difficult for the Thunder to score.
The absence of Russell Westbrook couldn’t have been more evident in this contest. This was the type of game where his skills were severely needed.
Throughout the final quarter and the extra period of Game 4, Thunder players deferred to Durant and occasionally seemed afraid to shoot. Every single play revolved around getting the ball to Oklahoma City’s leading scorer and when that failed, so did the offense.
Tony Allen stuck to Durant like glue. For some reason, Scott Brooks repeatedly called for Derek Fisher to set a screen for the 6’11’’ forward on the block with the intent of freeing him up.
Allen would have none of it and consequently prevented any Durant catch in this set. OKC adjusted and had Kendrick Perkins — a hellacious screen setter — set picks on the Grizzlies’ primary perimeter defender.
The strategy freed up KD ever so slightly. He got open around the elbow area, but became incredibly crowded once he caught the ball. Mike Conley came crashing down from the perimeter, basically ignoring Reggie Jackson.
In addition, the man defending Perkins jumped out on Durant as well and essentially created a triangular prison (with Allen shading him as he recovered from the screen). From there Durant either had to shoot the mid-range jumper or pass the ball to open teammates that played the roles of reluctant shooters.
Instead, Durant shot the ball and missed. Often.
In the fourth quarter and overtime of Game 4, Durant was 2-of-13 shooting from the field. Part of that falls on his shoulders because of his shot selection. He had a few semi-contested looks he created himself but missed those as well.
Below is his shooting chart from the final period and overtime courtesy of NBA.com/stats:
His coaching staff coupled with his teammates failed him. At no point did the Thunder run an action for another player to create a high percentage shot. Durant was never used in a fashion where he could be the recipient of a pass for an open look from an aggressive teammate.
The team became far too enamored with watching him operate and attempt to beat one of the best defenses in the league by himself.
Last week, Bomani Jones made the statement on the Dan LeBatard show that Oklahoma City will only truly compete for a title the moment Kevin Durant walks into the office of Sam Presti and demands a coaching change.
Although that is a little harsh, there is something to be said on that front. The Grizzlies’ defense is smothering Durant and his coaching staff hasn’t adjusted. When Westbrook was present, he caught a lot of flak for adlibbing whenever the KD option portion of the playbook got bottled up.
But in actuality he gave the offense a different look whenever the team’s leading scorer was being taken out of the game by multiple defenders. With Westbrook out, that release valve is simply no longer available.
No one on the team is secure or talented enough to ignore Durant and create something out of nothing when they can’t effectively get him the ball.
Unless the Thunder figure this out, they will be watching the Western Conference finals at home.
Questions or comments? Feel free to leave them in the comments section or you can contact me by email at [email protected].
Preview: The Oklahoma City Thunder (57-21) are one of the best teams in the league. They presently own the best record in the Western Conference and their plus-9.2 scoring differential is the best in the NBA.
In other words, they are an incredibly difficult team to beat.
Conventional wisdom would have you believe every discussion centered around the Thunder starts with Kevin Durant, but that isn’t quite the case anymore.
Durant is the league’s premier scorer by virtue of his almost comical efficiency. His shooting figures have reached the same stratosphere as Dirk Nowitzki, Larry Bird and Steve Nash. That’s a tier reserved only for the best of the best, and KD is headlining it right now.
That very same efficiency has made him the league’s top clutch (defined as last five minutes of the game with the scoring margin within five points or less) scorer this season. He just does it all.
Per Synergy Sports, Durant is converting 51.4 percent of his shots in post-up situations. This used to be an area where he struggled because of his lack of strength.
Also, Synergy Sports tells us that he’s making 48.5 percent of his shots as the pick-and-roll ball handler. Again, once upon a time, his handle on the ball wasn’t great. But he’s turned every weakness into an advantage.
This explains why the Thunder sport the league’s best offensive efficiency with KD on the floor and a merely average offense when he rides the pine per NBA.com’s advanced stats tool.
Truly, it’s extremely easy to get caught up in Kevin Durant’s production and attribute all of the credit for the team’s success his way.
But the recent results of #NBArank certainly outline that this isn’t quite the case. Russell Westbrook was rated as the fifth best player in the league, a spot he’s earned quite honestly.
Many get caught up in the instances when he’s somewhat out of control and consequently marginalize his talent as a point guard. The former Bruin certainly has his flaws, but the positives consistently outweigh the negatives.
Many despise when he pulls from 3-point range in transition, but Synergy Sports tells us he makes that shot 39.4 percent of the time.
In addition, his turnovers coupled with his low shooting percentages are less than ideal at the point guard position, or so the saying goes.
Mind you, since March 1st, Westbrook is averaging 24.4 points, 6.4 assists and 2.7 turnovers per game on 45.3 percent field goal shooting.
Surprisingly, when Russ is off the floor, the Thunder offense takes a step back. It’s still more than above average, but it’s no longer in the top five of the league according to NBA.com’s advanced stats tool.
In short, Russell Westbrook is essential to the Thunder’s success. It’s worth noting that this isn’t merely a two-man operation. Terrific complementing parts surround the duo.
Each and every player on the roster has a specific role they embrace that makes the team what it is.
Scott Brooks’ unit is in the running for home court advantage in the west, and all of that talent will be on full display at Oracle Arena tonight.
This will be Oklahoma City’s last game against an opponent with a winning record this season and you have to believe that means something. The Thunder will want to send a message in front of a national television audience.
The atmosphere will still be one of a regular season game, but it should still make for an awesome game tonight.
Enjoy.
Statistical support provided by NBA.com.
Questions or comments? Feel free to leave them in the comments section or you can contact me by email at [email protected].
The Warriors are well on their way towards their first playoff berth since the 2006-2007 season, better known as the “We Believe” campaign. For those analytics people out there, the Warriors have a 97% chance at making the playoffs according to Hollinger’s NBA Playoff Odds (his odds also have the Warriors at .03% chance to win the Finals, but what does he know?).
The last month and a half or so have been stressful for Warriors fans. The Warriors had a six game losing streak stretching through the All-Star break, which began with the infamous 119-140 drumming by the Rockets and concluding with the 101-115 loss in Utah.
One week later, the Warriors started another multi-game losing streak that started with the post-fight loss in Indiana and ending with one of the more disappointing losses of the season, a loss to the hapless 76ers which ended their seven game losing streak.
Since the March 4 win vs. Toronto, the Warriors have seemingly been trading a couple wins with a loss or two, giving Warriors fans some relief while also raising more questions. This team is no way a powerhouse, but that doesn’t mean their chances of advancing in the Western Conference playoffs is out the window.
The most common question raised amongst fans after wins is: “Who do we want to play in the first round?” While on the contrary, after losses — like the 95-115 home loss vs. Chicago — had fans asking: “Where would we be with James Harden!?” or saying “This team won’t win a game in the first round.”
It’s quite entertaining to see the struggle that many go through on a game-by-game basis. The Warriors are an above average club in the midst of a surprisingly successful season with a second year coach and the 11th youngest roster in the NBA (average age being 25.9). Still, many are treating this team like say, Dallas, who is normally a perennial playoff power but is in the middle of a downtrodden, lottery-bound mess.
Before we declare who we’d rather face in the first round of the playoffs, it’s very much necessary to know what this team really is. This is also known as being a realist, which if you’ve been with this team for any longer than this season, you know these are few and far between in Warriors Ground. With that said, let’s look at the most likely first round candidates this team will have to play.
Disclaimer: if this team collapses, misses the playoffs and heads into an off-season full of typical Warriors mayhem, don’t be afraid to blame yours truly.
Sheed and myself are back in studio to talk another week of Warriors basketball, for better or worse. Since our last episode the Warriors have gone 2-2 but have looked embarrasing in their last two games vs. the Rockets and the Thunder. Cause for concern? We discuss.
In our second segment we have the audio version to my interview with Kent Bazemore that occured last Saturday. Bazemore — who’s been impressing lately in extended minutes — talks about his upbringing in Kelford, North Carolina, his expectations entering training camp, where they are now and Family Guy.
In our final segment, we discuss everything All-Star Saturday night as the participants for each contest were selected just before our recording. We give our picks for each contest and why Team Chuck will get annihilated.
With the Golden State Warriors (30-18) taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder (36-12) tonight (5:00 p.m. PT), the Warriors World staff previewed the contest with a 3-on-3 post.
1. Best player now: Klay Thompson or Kevin Martin?
Jack Winter, Warriors World: Martin, but it’s closer than basic raw numbers suggest. Martin’s long been one of the NBA’s most efficient players – he’s taken an inordinate amount of free throws over the course of his career for a deadeye long-range shooter – and that’s hardly changed in his first season as a member of the Thunder. He’s shooting 45.3% overall, 43.8% from beyond the arc and 90.4% at the charity stripe, all combining for a career-high and position-leading true shooting percentage of 61.9. But Martin’s sacrificing touches for the first time in his career and is tasked with creating less off the dribble, too, leading to a stark decrease in free throw attempts. That discrepancy from his career norms and the usual sieve-like defense make him a legitimate Sixth Man of the Year candidate anyway, but choosing him over Golden State’s sharpshooting sophomore isn’t the layup it once was. Thompson, meanwhile, is getting better by the game. After a rough start to what was supposed to be a breakout season, he’s back to his hyper-efficient self and is slowly but surely adding more as a playmaker, too. But what makes this either/or close – and will eventually swing it in his favor – is Thompson’s underrated play on the other end of the floor. He’s an active, dedicated defender with good physical tools, and in time should grow into an easy ‘plus’ defensively. That’s not to say he isn’t already; after all, opposing shooting guards register just a 12.5 PER when Thompson is on the floor. All that said, it’s still Martin… for now.
Jordan Ramirez, Warriors World: This isn’t really a fair question, considering Martin is in his ninth season playing for his third team in the NBA and Thompson is still in his second season. Martin is the better, more consistent player right now as a result. Both are 6’7′, Klay is slightly bigger which makes him a better defensive prospect, but Martin benefits right now playing with Oklahoma City, a team with championship talent and championship aspirations. This isn’t a knock on Thompson, who has played well of late despite his overall inconstancy this season, it’s just a byproduct of the comparison. Martin has seen more, played longer and has stayed consistent more than Thompson has, but Thompson has the ability to be a more valuable asset than Martin has if he tweaks his game a little bit. Hint: pump fakes, his aggressiveness and his perimeter defense.
J.M. Poulard, Warriors World: Kevin Martin has the better PER figure as well as a higher true shooting percentage, which is indicative of his superior play this season. He’s been a sniper from long-range throughout the season whereas Thompson’s seen his 3-point shooting fluctuate some during the season although it’s picked up as of late.
Martin has been good shot creator for the majority of his career and that’s been the case this season as well, but playing alongside Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook has led to him being the recipient of passes for easier shot attempts than at any other point in his career and he’s taken advantage of that to make the Thunder offense a sensational one. Per NBA.com’s advanced stats tool, with Martin on the bench, the Thunder would boast the eighth best offense in the league, but with the guard on the floor, the figure jumps up to 113 points per 100 possessions, which would easily represent the best figure in the NBA.
At present time, the answer is Kevin Martin.
2. Who has the better game tonight: Stephen Curry or Russell Westbrook?
Jack Winter: Curry, but it’s a hunch. Can you really see him endure another poor outing after last night’s listless performance in Houston? Curry went 3-12 from the field and was held below double-figures for the first time since December 12th against the Rockets, and will no doubt look to right his ship from the get-go tonight. Helping things is the Thunder’s sometimes undisciplined defense; they can lose shooters when the ball swings to an extra side, and Westbrook in particular is prone to falling asleep on longer possessions. None of that’s to say Westbrook won’t go off, though. He’ll have ample opportunities to prove himself as a jumpshooter facing Golden State’s pick-and-roll defensive attack, and without Andrew Bogut to protect the rim will obviously get to the paint on occasion, too. So expect aggression from both guys, but recent trends – Curry’s poor shooting and Westbrook’s hot shooting – support the notoriously fickle law of averages.
Jordan Ramirez: Curry exploded for 31 points, seven assists and four rebounds in their last meeting in Oakland, cooking Westbrook for most of the game as the All-Star guard struggled mightily from the field (3-for-16 from the field, 10 points, six turnovers). However Curry is coming off one of his worst games of the season against Houston and is in Oklahoma City for tonight’s matchup. The odds are in Westbrook’s favor as he statistically plays better at home (44% shooting at home vs. 40% on the road), but I still say Curry has the better statistical game. It’s practically impossible for Curry to have a worse game than he did last night and he’s proven multiple times this season that resiliency is in his blood. I expect Curry to have the better game, which may or may not equal a Warriors win.
J.M. Poulard: It’s tempting to go along with Stephen Curry here, given that Russell Westbrook has a tendency to occasionally lose focus on the defensive end and even play some overaggressive defense; but Russell Westbrook is also an overpowering athlete that usually finds ways to get whatever shots he wants against defenders and tonight won’t be an exception.
RW will probably take Curry down to the block a few times but more so than anything he should victimize the Davidson product in the pick-and-roll where he is adept at splitting the traps and also getting into the paint whenever the big man defending the screen-roll action just sags into the paint.
Expect Stephen Curry to face a bit of foul trouble.
3. Is Kevin Durant your choice for MVP at this point in the season?
Jack Winter: No, and it’s not quite as close as you’d think. Durant is enjoying the best season of his career and one of the best individual seasons ever, actually, shooting with efficiency heretofore unseen for such a prolific scorer, showing new and still-developing court sense/playmaking ability and an improved commitment to defense. He’s already historically great, he’s just 24 years old and he’s clearly getting better. But that doesn’t make Durant the MVP, not with a better-than-ever LeBron James still in the league. And barring more separation between OKC and Miami in the standings plus a downturn in the play of the latter, that won’t change as the regular season comes winds down.
Jordan Ramirez: LeBron James is the MVP. He’s the Heat’s leading scorer, rebounder, assist man and also leads the team in steals, all while guarding the opposing team’s best player most of the time. He’s a better defender than Durant and does more for his team than Durant does. Without LeBron on the floor that Heat fail to function, they look like chickens with their heads cut off really. While the Thunder are insanely better with Durant on the floor, he isn’t as valuable to his own team as LeBron is to the Heat. We often take advantage of his numbers (26.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 7.0 APG), which is simply foolish for a talent that will never come around again. People are fascinated with the game winners and clutch scoring, an area where Durant does outshine LeBron, but that’s not enough to propel Durant to the MVP award. Don’t become a product of the First Take narrative, enjoy how LeBron plays the game and what he does for his team, which is pretty much everything.
J.M. Poulard: No. This one will probably go down to the wire, but despite the fact that Kevin Durant is enjoying his best ever season as a pro, the reigning league MVP has somehow enhanced his already incredible value as a player and to the Heat and the league by also submitting his best season to date in the NBA.
Much like Durant, LeBron James is displaying the best scoring efficiency of his career thanks to a career high true shooting percentage, but where he differentiates himself is in the playmaking department as well as his defensive value to the Miami Heat.
Miami’s defense is at its best whenever James is on the floor whereas that is still debatable for the ever-improving Kevin Durant. Indeed, OKC surrenders 100.4 points per 100 possessions with Durant on the bench, and improve (slightly) to 100 points per 100 possessions when he hits the floor.
The differential for James is a bit larger because of his ability to defend multiple positions, help and recover and drastically reduce the high percentage scoring opportunities of his main assignment whether on the perimeter or in the low post. And he does it all by avoiding fouls.
Durant and James are separated by the tiniest of margins, but right now James has a slight edge.
Preview:The Oklahoma City Thunder will be at Oracle Arena tonight to take on the Golden State Warriors after defeating the Los Angeles Clippers last night at Staples Center.
At present time, the Thunder might just be the best team in the league by virtue of their record and overall performance this year. Indeed, not only do they own the best record in the NBA, they also own a scoring differential of plus-nine (best in the league), which suggests they’ve been taking care of business against inferior competition.
They have three separate winning streaks of five games or more this season and recorded wins against the Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers (twice), Indiana Pacers, San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets.
It goes without saying, Oklahoma City is a championship contender and may just be the favorite at present time to not only represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals, but also win the whole thing.
The OKC Thunder are so difficult to match up with because on offense they have a four-headed monster that just shatters whatever defensive concepts teams choose to employ against them.
It obviously all starts with the ever-talented and quite honestly unstoppable scoring force that is Kevin Durant. The former Longhorn is simply the best scorer in the association at present time and may finish his career as the best point producer the league has ever seen.
Durant scores in a variety of ways that just leave head coaches scratching their heads. He does it by spotting up, off the dribble, on the block, off one foot, from mid-range, from long-range, at the rim with dunks or finger rolls and with floaters in the paint or from the baseline. And when all of those fail, he draws contact and steps up to the free throw line where he is automatic.
From there, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and Kevin Martin are able to operate against single coverage because of all the attention that KD garners.
A Westbrook-Durant pick-and-roll will routinely create an advantageous and dangerous matchup for the Thunder, while running the Texas product off screens often results in the screener getting open because his man has to step up and temporarily help out on the scoring machine.
These situations coupled with Russell Westbrook’s explosive drives allow the likes of Serge Ibaka and Kevin Martin to get open looks, which they routinely convert, hence putting enormous pressure on opposing defenses.
As great as Kevin Durant is though, he greatly benefits from having the UCLA product playing point guard on his team. Although many in the national media are quick to criticize Westbrook for occasionally being out of control, he is unquestionably the motor of the team given how his energy and reckless abandon often carry it.
In addition, the former Bruin is destructive in the pick-and-roll because of his speed and strength; he can simply turn the corner at ease or split the trap and attempt a jump shot or instead get into the paint and attack the basket and threaten the best shot blockers in the league with his incredible athleticism that allows him to finish over the top.
Put him next to Kevin Durant, and well the pair is just unstoppable. When we look at the top 250 pairings in the NBA in minutes so far this season, Durant and Westbrook are the fourth best scoring unit, posting 110.9 points per 48 minutes according to NBA.com’s advanced stats tool. The top spot?
Owned by the tandem of Kevin Martin and Russell Westbrook.
Heck, the top four spots belong to pairings of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
I guess this just a fancy way of saying to expect Scott Brooks’ team to light up the scoreboard tonight.
Let’s see just how far the Warriors have truly come this season.
Statistical support provided by NBA.com.
Questions or comments? Feel free to leave them in the comments section or you can contact me by email at [email protected].
Four areas of special interest in tonight’s matchup at Oracle Arena against the league-leading Oklahoma City Thunder.
Turnovers
Neither the Warriors or Thunder are especially adept at forcing turnovers – the former ranks 26th in the league and the latter, surprisingly, is middle-of-the-pack at 14th. Both are prone to turn turning the ball over when they have it at an alarmingly high rate, too. The Thunder rank second in turnover percentage while the Warriors aren’t far behind at seventh. Taking all that into consideration, this isn’t an important area to watch tonight because the ball will be thrown all over the court and miscues will rue the day. Instead, turnovers could prove especially influential to the game’s outcome because of what happens once they’re committed. OKC, on the strength of a devastating transition attack headed by their two superstars, gets 17.6% of their points off turnovers – 10th in the league – despite forcing them at an average rate. Few makes a team pay for their mistakes like the Thunder, a sobering thought given Golden State’s sometimes sloppy ballhandling. And unfortunately, the Warriors won’t be able to even the score via Oklahoma City miscues; they rank dead last in points off turnovers.
Kendrick Perkins’ Minutes
Perkins’ role is under constant scrutiny from fans and media alike. The advanced numbers say his impact on the Thunder is overwhelmingly negative, and that’s been the case since he was acquired via trade in March 2011. His teammates and coaches, on the other hand, routinely point to his defense and leadership as reason to justify his 24.7 minutes per game. Why that matters given the metrics is anyone’s guess, but for this season at least Oklahoma City’s consistent commitment to Perkins is clear. And that’s a good thing for the Warriors, because they have the personnel to exploit his weaknesses on both ends of the floor. Perkins is slow of foot and can struggle recovering to his man in pick-and-rolls and rotating quickly enough to ensure a shooter is contested on the weakside. In that same vein, big men that can step away from the basket and play from 15-feet extended routinely give him problems. Watch for Golden State’s Jack-Curry-Thompson-Lee-Landry quintet and how the Thunder react to it. On paper, at least, Perkins won’t be able to keep up on defense and isn’t skilled enough to hurt the Warriors on the other end. If he’s on the floor for stretches when both Lee and Landry are, it’s undoubtedly advantage Golden State.
Three-Pointers
Pace adjusted, the Warriors allow the second-most three-point attempts in the league. Conversely, opponents are shooting just 32.7% against Golden State from beyond the arc, but that’s a notoriously fickle statistic. Counting on a team to miss a bunch of threes normally isn’t a sustainable way to defend in the NBA, especially when the squad shooting them is one as deadly from deep as Oklahoma City. Golden State is tied for the league lead in three-point accuracy; the team matching their 39.3% mark? These very Thunder. Durant, Kevin Martin, and Thabo Sefolosha are shooting at least 41.7% on threes this season., and Russell Westbrook and even Serge Ibaka are bigger threats than ever from that range, too. OKC connected on 15-of-27 three-pointers last night in a win over the Clippers in Los Angeles, an anomaly but something that should still give the Warriors major cause for concern. On the other side, Golden State is obviously proficient in this area, too. The Thunder rank 11th in three-point attempts allowed this season and the Warriors will no doubt look to exploit it. OKC isn’t the most disciplined team defensively, and GSW can take advantage of that fact with quick, decisive ball movement.
Thunder Pick-and-Rolls
Both Westbrook and Durant are devastating in pick-and-roll situations as the ballhandler, able to finish at the rim with rare authority and explosion or pull-up for an uncontested mid-range jumper. They’re willing and effective passers, too, Durant in particular improving the array of passes in his repertoire and having developed more court awareness this season. It’s truly a pick-your-poison scenario here, and – provided they defend the way they have all season – we know which route Golden State will go. The Warriors have changed their coverage of PNRs this season, forcing the dribbler away from the screen and into an awaiting pocket 15-to-20 feet away from the basket created by the roller/popper’s man. This strategy cedes an open jumper from that very space, but GSW has decided that’s better than allowing the penetration from both players involved in the action. And against Westbrook and Durant that’s especially true. They can hit that shot, no doubt, but making them take it is still a win for the defense. If either is particularly hot or cold from there, that could be the difference in the game.
Statistical support for this article provided by NBA.com.
Although I have yet to hear much about this recent development, it seems as though Oklahoma City and Los Angeles are headed for a collision course in the playoffs based on their regular season performance about a quarter through the season.
The Los Angeles team pertinent to this conversation at this moment in time would be the Clippers (21-6) and not the Lakers (13-14), although there is an incredibly small chance that the Thunder (21-5) could potentially face off against the purple and gold in the first round of the postseason.
Nonetheless, OKC and Lob City currently occupy the top spots in the Western Conference standings thanks to their collective efforts as basketball clubs. Continue Reading…
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