The Oklahoma City Thunder are staring at a daunting 3-1 deficit in the Western Conference semifinals after losing a tough Game 4 in overtime. Kevin Durant struggled down the stretch, which made it difficult for the Thunder to score.
The absence of Russell Westbrook couldn’t have been more evident in this contest. This was the type of game where his skills were severely needed.
Throughout the final quarter and the extra period of Game 4, Thunder players deferred to Durant and occasionally seemed afraid to shoot. Every single play revolved around getting the ball to Oklahoma City’s leading scorer and when that failed, so did the offense.
Tony Allen stuck to Durant like glue. For some reason, Scott Brooks repeatedly called for Derek Fisher to set a screen for the 6’11’’ forward on the block with the intent of freeing him up.
Allen would have none of it and consequently prevented any Durant catch in this set. OKC adjusted and had Kendrick Perkins — a hellacious screen setter — set picks on the Grizzlies’ primary perimeter defender.
The strategy freed up KD ever so slightly. He got open around the elbow area, but became incredibly crowded once he caught the ball. Mike Conley came crashing down from the perimeter, basically ignoring Reggie Jackson.
In addition, the man defending Perkins jumped out on Durant as well and essentially created a triangular prison (with Allen shading him as he recovered from the screen). From there Durant either had to shoot the mid-range jumper or pass the ball to open teammates that played the roles of reluctant shooters.
Instead, Durant shot the ball and missed. Often.
In the fourth quarter and overtime of Game 4, Durant was 2-of-13 shooting from the field. Part of that falls on his shoulders because of his shot selection. He had a few semi-contested looks he created himself but missed those as well.
Below is his shooting chart from the final period and overtime courtesy of NBA.com/stats:
His coaching staff coupled with his teammates failed him. At no point did the Thunder run an action for another player to create a high percentage shot. Durant was never used in a fashion where he could be the recipient of a pass for an open look from an aggressive teammate.
The team became far too enamored with watching him operate and attempt to beat one of the best defenses in the league by himself.
Last week, Bomani Jones made the statement on the Dan LeBatard show that Oklahoma City will only truly compete for a title the moment Kevin Durant walks into the office of Sam Presti and demands a coaching change.
Although that is a little harsh, there is something to be said on that front. The Grizzlies’ defense is smothering Durant and his coaching staff hasn’t adjusted. When Westbrook was present, he caught a lot of flak for adlibbing whenever the KD option portion of the playbook got bottled up.
But in actuality he gave the offense a different look whenever the team’s leading scorer was being taken out of the game by multiple defenders. With Westbrook out, that release valve is simply no longer available.
No one on the team is secure or talented enough to ignore Durant and create something out of nothing when they can’t effectively get him the ball.
Unless the Thunder figure this out, they will be watching the Western Conference finals at home.
Questions or comments? Feel free to leave them in the comments section or you can contact me by email at [email protected].
The Warriors are well on their way towards their first playoff berth since the 2006-2007 season, better known as the “We Believe” campaign. For those analytics people out there, the Warriors have a 97% chance at making the playoffs according to Hollinger’s NBA Playoff Odds (his odds also have the Warriors at .03% chance to win the Finals, but what does he know?).
The last month and a half or so have been stressful for Warriors fans. The Warriors had a six game losing streak stretching through the All-Star break, which began with the infamous 119-140 drumming by the Rockets and concluding with the 101-115 loss in Utah.
One week later, the Warriors started another multi-game losing streak that started with the post-fight loss in Indiana and ending with one of the more disappointing losses of the season, a loss to the hapless 76ers which ended their seven game losing streak.
Since the March 4 win vs. Toronto, the Warriors have seemingly been trading a couple wins with a loss or two, giving Warriors fans some relief while also raising more questions. This team is no way a powerhouse, but that doesn’t mean their chances of advancing in the Western Conference playoffs is out the window.
The most common question raised amongst fans after wins is: “Who do we want to play in the first round?” While on the contrary, after losses — like the 95-115 home loss vs. Chicago — had fans asking: “Where would we be with James Harden!?” or saying “This team won’t win a game in the first round.”
It’s quite entertaining to see the struggle that many go through on a game-by-game basis. The Warriors are an above average club in the midst of a surprisingly successful season with a second year coach and the 11th youngest roster in the NBA (average age being 25.9). Still, many are treating this team like say, Dallas, who is normally a perennial playoff power but is in the middle of a downtrodden, lottery-bound mess.
Before we declare who we’d rather face in the first round of the playoffs, it’s very much necessary to know what this team really is. This is also known as being a realist, which if you’ve been with this team for any longer than this season, you know these are few and far between in Warriors Ground. With that said, let’s look at the most likely first round candidates this team will have to play.
Disclaimer: if this team collapses, misses the playoffs and heads into an off-season full of typical Warriors mayhem, don’t be afraid to blame yours truly.
With the Golden State Warriors (30-19) taking on the Memphis Grizzlies (30-18) tonight (5:00 p.m. PT), we reached out to our Warriors World staff as well as Chip Crain of 3 Shades of Blue, the Memphis Grizzlies ESPN TrueHoop Affiliate blog, to get their takes on the game in a 3-on-3 post.
1. Fact or fiction: the Memphis Grizzlies will finish the season with a better record than the Golden State Warriors.
Chip Crain, 3 Shades of Blue: Tough call right now since neither team is tearing up the league. Memphis made major moves recently so their slide is somehow understandable. Golden State’s schedule is UGLY so their slide is understandable as well. I would have to say Memphis will finish ahead because their schedule doesn’t get ugly until after the All-Star break and by then the team should have worked out their rotations.
Jordan Ramirez, Warriors World: Oh how the tables have turned. If you asked this question before the season most would’ve balked and laughed hysterically at that even being a remote possibility. But here we are, the Grizzlies sitting at 30-18 and the Warriors right behind them at 30-19. Both teams in a reflective state of flux as of late, with Memphis trying to find their identity after the deal that sent their “I get paid like a superstar so I’m a superstar!” asset in Rudy Gay and the Warriors losing embarrassingly in both Houston and Oklahoma City. I give the nod to Memphis, but just barely. They’ve been in this situation before, they know how the playoffs work, they know how the league works and when in doubt, trust your horses. Z-Bo and Gasol is still one of, if not the, best frontcourts in the NBA, and the sneaky great play of Mike Conley also doesn’t hurt. The Warriors finish just behind the Grizzlies in the standings, not because they’re lack of talent, but because of their youth.
Jack Winter, Warriors World: Fiction, but it’s damn close. Both teams have struggled lately, Memphis having lost three of their last four games and Golden State suffering two straight defeats in humiliating fashion. The Warriors are just a game back of the Grizzlies as it stands now, and the latter are in a state of flux; Lionel Hollins and his players haven’t been shy voicing their displeasure with the Rudy Gay trade, and they’ve scored more than at least 92 points since the deal was completed. Golden State, on the other hand, gets Andrew Bogut back full-time after the All-Star break to help cure their recent defensive woes. With the teams standing just a game apart at this point in the season, I’ll side with the one that likely won’t face any locker room distractions or be forced to undergo a major change in strategic philosophy – that’s the Warriors. But don’t sleep on the Grizzlies; they’ll right the ship, it may just take a couple weeks.
2. Who is most deserving of an All-Star spot: Stephen Curry or Marc Gasol?
Chip Crain: Curry is probably more deserving but if Dwight Howard sits out then I expect Gasol to get the nod simply because he is a center. Gasol is one of the best big men in the game and probably should be in the game anyway simply for his defense. Curry is an outstanding shooter but his defense is weak and he isn’t exactly a playmaker at the point.
Jordan Ramirez: The NBA decided to switch it up this season, removing positions from the All-Star ballot and instead using “backcourt” and “frontcourt” as their barometer for votes. I supported the move, but certain players still got screwed. Gasol and Curry both deserved to make this team, as I still don’t believe Tony Parker or LaMarcus Aldridge deserved to make it any more than them. Between the both of them, I’d say Curry deserves it slightly more than the better Gasol brother. Curry has led his team to the record they currently own, is shooting (and making) a ridiculous amount of threes, has improved his passing and has career highs in mostly every statistical category. Gasol is an elite defender and might be the best interior defender in the league, but the All-Star game isn’t one for defensive specialists. Let Curry splash.
Jack Winter: Curry, but that doesn’t mean Gasol wasn’t worthy of a selection. He’s been the engine that’s made Memphis go from the beginning of the season, facilitating the offense from the low key and elbows while taking his defensive genius to an even higher level. Raw numbers don’t show it, but Gasol is the Grizzlies’ MVP – on both ends of the floor, too. But Curry means just as much to Golden State, and has his team positioned just behind Memphis in the standings despite a lesser supporting cast. He’s also one of three players in the league to average at least 19 points and six assists per 36 minutes with a true shooting percentage better than 56%. The other two? LeBron James and Tony Parker. It’s a point guard’s league right now, and this season Curry’s emerged as one of its best.
Both he and Gasol should be All-Stars, though. The latter is certainly more worthy of the honor than teammate Zach Randolph, and they deserved a selection more than LaMarcus Aldridge. By measures objective, subjective, analytical and eye-test – the necessary combination, by the way – Curry and Gasol have been two of the West’s twelve best players this season. Easily. It’s a shame neither was originally chosen.
3. Best Western Conference power forward and center tandem (when healthy)?
Chip Crain: Hard to say because Bogut and Lee have never been healthy. Randolph is definitely past his prime right now but he has been durable and Gasol, while not attractive is the more effective big right now. That has more to do with rust than skill however. IF I had to take two for this year I would pick the Grizzlies but the Warriors duo will be better moving forward assuming good health.
Jordan Ramirez: “Best” meaning what exactly? The tandem that produces the most wins, the tandem that is most fun to watch or some combination of the two? I’ll still roll with the Randolph-Gasol duo, both are All-Stars this season (for better or worse) and we’ve seen what they can do on both ends of the floor at full strength. But, that’s not to say there is a shortage of intriguing frontcourts in the Western Conference: Ibaka-Perkins, Griffin-Jordan, Lee-Bogut and Millsap-Jefferson are all tandems I don’t mind watching on a daily basis. League Pass anyone?
Jack Winter: Randolph and Gasol, only because we’ve yet to see David Lee and Bogut play together while fully healthy even once this season, let alone often enough to properly gauge their effectiveness as a tandem. The Grizzlies’ interior duo is still the league’s best right now, combining size, skill and know-how better than any other in the NBA. But the problem for Memphis is that Randolph is firmly on the downside of his career, and he’s recently begun playing like it. Their reign as kings of the big man hill – despite Gasol’s all-around brilliance – likely won’t last past this season then, opening the door for Lee/Bogut to assume the throne.
Preview: Earlier in the season, the Memphis Grizzlies dispatched the Golden State Warriors at Oracle Arena by double digits thanks in large part to their defensive intensity, which allowed them to hold the Dubs to 94 points on 45 percent field goal shooting.
The Grizz have since been carried throughout the regular season by that very same defense, which is ranked as the second best in the league statistically.
For a brief stretch this season, the Grizzlies were viewed as the Western Conference’s dominant team by virtue of some strong performances against top shelf NBA teams such as the Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder and New York Knicks.
The Grizzlies players set the tone early in contests by playing physical defense and swarming to the ball, thus making things quite uncomfortable for the opposition.
Memphis packs the paint and attacks ball handlers as well as post players to force the ball out of their hands and create situations that lead to turnovers.
One way of taking advantage of this is with simple passes, ball fakes and great perimeter shooting. Indeed, because the Grizzlies like to flock to the ball especially when it approaches the paint, it means that perimeter players are often left momentarily unguarded at the 3-point line.
This explains how Golden State converted 10-for-20 shots from 3-point land on November 2nd against the Grizzlies; but it’s still worth noting that the Warriors coughed the ball up 18 times in that very same game.
Stephen Curry and David Lee are two of the team’s three best playmakers, and they combined for eight miscues in their first battle against Memphis.
It stands to reason that the turnovers and 3-point shooting will go a long way towards determining the winner of this contest, but I would also add that Carl Landry’s offensive performance will play a huge part for the Dubs as well.
Indeed, Landry does a good job of not only posting up, but also setting up opponents with his jump shot and attacking slower players off the dribble. But again, this will have to be executed fairly quickly tonight, otherwise he will be met by a sea of defenders trying to snatch the ball away from him.
One should keep in mind that this isn’t just your typical regular season game given that these teams are separated by one game in the standings.
The playoffs are still a couple of months away, but could this be a potential opening round preview?
Questions or comments? Feel free to leave them in the comments section or you can contact me by email at [email protected].
I’m open to the idea that Rudy Gay might flourish in the right situation. That’s a nice way of saying that I don’t understand the interest in him in this instance.
There were a lot of jokes about how, after John Hollinger joned up with the Grizzlies, Rudy Gay was done in Memphis. After all, Gay’s 14.94 PER is a shade below average and he’s making $53 million.
The funny thing about these jokes, apart from that these jokes are funny, apart from that these jokes are funny because they might be true, is that PER likes Rudy Gay best among aggregate advanced statistics. It’s hard to know the value of taking a shot, and PER errs on the side of rewarding shot takers. This isn’t necessarily a flaw in the metric; It just means that PER is more forgiving of Rudy than Win Shares and Wins Produced–as a matter of philosophy.
This is another way of saying that so many stats tend to sneer at Rudy Gay once you look beyond scoring average. If that sentence reads at all familiarly, it’s because I and others have made similar statements about Monta Ellis for years. By the way, did you hear that Scott Skiles is no longer coach of the Milwaukee Bucks? Funny, that.
If you’re an optimist about this possible move, perhaps it’s because you believe that Gay will shoot much better on a team with better spacing. He’s had one year of 39% three point shooting, but is 34.5% for his career. We’ve seen what better spacing has done to Carmelo Anthony’s three point stroke, so maybe the same can happen to Rudy.
The problem is that Golden State can’t provide the spacing that New York does, on account of playing a traditional power forward in David Lee. There exists another possibility that David Lee’s passing will compensate for the lack of space, thus freeing Rudy Gay’s three pointer like a glorious, fluttering, ascending speckled dove. If you’re betting on that, that’s your gamble. I’m not with you on it.
Life is good in the Bay Area right now, and while I applaud aggressive tactics, I would also prefer an objective reason to believe in a gamble. Rudy Gay and his $53 million contract haven’t delivered much in the way of value so far. As I wish the player in question would do more often, I’d pass here.
Now that we’ve covered the Eastern Conference’s Power Rankings, Warriors fans can now rapidly jump onto the Western Conference’s one to verify where the Dubs situate themselves.
Take on the team: Every time the Lakers fire their head coach so far this season, they are victorious. If they can reproduce this 76 more times for the remainder of the season, they might just challenge the ’96 Bulls all-time winning record.
Take on the team: The Kings have a different feel to them this season; not necessarily a playoff one; but more so of a team that means business. They look much more aggressive, more physical and more intimidating. Whether that translates to more wins remains to be seen.
Take on the team: The Suns looked a little lost early in the season on offense as the franchise officially began the post-Nash era, but they have looked a little better as of late and might not end up with the worst record in the Pacific as someone over at Warriors World (me) had predicted.
Take on the team: Their might not be a more Jekyll and Hyde team in the league than the Utah Jazz. They’ve lost all of their road games so far, but won both of their home games against the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers by an average of 14 points.
Take on the team: Denver started out the season by losing three games in a row — all on the road — but have since rebounded and won three straight, most recently routing Utah by 20.
Take on the team: Monty Williams rarely gets credit and it’s a shame because the Hornets have been extremely competitive under him going back to last season despite Eric Gordon’s inability to suit up for games. The Hornets are fun to watch and Anthony Davis has not disappointed early on.
Take on the team: The Rockets have lost three games in a row but have lost to some tough opposition as well, which is why despite their losing record at the moment they are still a top team in the Western Conference based on their performance so far this season.
Take on the team: The Trail Blazers are a joy to watch and might just be a sneaky good team although not everyone realizes it yet. Portland might seem like a subpar team given their record, but their losses have come at OKC, at Dallas and versus the Los Angeles Clippers; all of which were playoff teams last season.
7. Golden State Warriors (3-3)
Offensive Efficiency: 96 (tied for 24th in NBA)
Defensive Efficiency: 99 (tied for 15th in NBA)
Team Blog: Obviously here at Warriors World.
Take on the team: Until last night’s shellacking at the hands of the Lakers, I actually had the Warriors a spot higher by virtue of their victory over the Clippers, but being soundly beaten by a team in disarray warrants at least a slight drop.
Take on the team: The Wolves undoubtedly have been the early surprise of the season given their play as well as their record despite the absence of Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love. The additions of Kirilenko and Roy coupled with their synergy with the roster seem to be paying huge dividends; one can only wonder how that plays out when Love and Rubio eventually come back.
Take on the team: Now that everyone has moved on from the James Harden saga, we can clearly see that Oklahoma City is a really good team that’s actually getting quality and efficient production from Kevin Martin as well as terrific play out of Serge Ibaka. If there is one area of concern at this moment in time, it’s how the Thunder adjust to Westbrook’s poor performances. When Harden was on board, he could direct traffic and assume playmaking duties, but that is no longer a luxury the team has, even with Eric Maynor back into the fold.
Take on the team: The Grizzlies tend to get lost in the shuffle for whatever reason, but they have played quite well so far this season and even own double-digit road victories against Milwaukee and Golden State. Their physical play coupled with their propensity to make life for opponents miserable with their ball-hawking have them looking down at most teams in this ranking.
Take on the team: The Mavericks have managed to play good basketball so far this season despite the absence of Dirk Nowitzki thanks in large part due to the acquisitions of O.J. Mayo and Darren Collison. The Mavs might be under the radar right now, but once Dirk comes back, this might be a sleeper team that catches fire at just the right time.
Take on the team: For all the concerns about the coaching, the Clippers loaded up with talent to indirectly help alleviate that problem. Their defense has looked a bit better at times and although their offense is quite simplistic, when you have better players executing it, it tends to look much better. Combine that with the fact that the Clips have two teams — a half-court one and a transition one — and it’s tough to look in many other places for the title of best team in the west right now. But there is one last spot to look at…
Take on the team: Although the Spurs’ lone loss came at the hands of the Clippers, the reason they got the top spot is simple: they’ve taken care of business. They defeated the Thunder in a tight game in their home opener and also produced an average scoring margin of plus-11.8 in their four other victories. Simply put, they are the cream of the crop out west.
Questions or comments? Feel free to leave them in the comments section or you can contact me by email at [email protected].
Sometimes you can watch basketball games and see that a specific lineup is completely out of sync. The five-man unit might struggle to adapt and complement each other offensively and also fail to pick each other up defensively; which in turn makes it a mediocre lineup.
That is the case of the Golden State Warriors starters.
To be fair, it’s not that they are necessarily a bad combination, but their lack of reps together has been widely evident in the first two regular season games. Continue Reading…
It was supposed to be a special night at Oracle Arena. The brand-spanking new lineup that management spent the offseason assembling was making their debut in front of an excited and hopeful home crowd in Oakland. After the extravagant player introductions and the glow sticks had been cracked, basketball got underway and the crowd was buzzing.
Then with 4:10 left in the first quarter, the energy was sucked out of the building seemingly in an instant.
Brandon Rush drove toward the basket and went up for what looked to be a thunderous dunk but instead, came down in one of the most awkward and gruesome ways a player can land. He immediately came up limping and screamed almost knowing immediately that whatever went wrong in his knee wasn’t going to be good.
After he was helped off the court and into the locker room, the Warriors gathered into a huddle in what was likely a prayer for their fallen teammate (another sign that it was probably a very severe injury).
Asked about the injury after the game, point guard Jarrett Jack shook his head in disbelief before answering. “It had me in a daze for a little while,” said a very emotional Jack. “I’ve known Brandon probably longer than anybody in here. I knew him as a rookie. We both went to Indiana the same year – lived next door to each other, literally. He’s one of my really, really good friends. To watch that happen, it took the air out of me for a little bit.”
The Warriors still had about 40 minutes of basketball to play, but after losing such an important piece of their team and friend to injury, it clearly took its toll on them. “I think that took a little bit out of us just because this is a tight knit group and we know how big of a year this is for him” said coach Mark Jackson. “Just an unfortunate, unfortunate break.”
Jack talked about what it was like in the moments after Rush went down. “I know personally for me, my heart was pounding,” he said. “He’s a really great kid, fun-loving kid. Nobody deserves to get hurt but if there was a person who didn’t deserve it, it was him.”
The Warriors went on to make a spirited comeback behind Stephen Curry’s hot shooting but ultimately fell to the Grizzlies. A loss on opening night will be forgotten quickly knowing there are 80 more games to be played. The loss of Rush on the other hand, will be felt for what looks to be the entire season.
Jack mentioned that he was able to see Rush after the injury. “I talked to him, but what do you really say to somebody in that situation? Obviously he couldn’t play so we know he’s going to miss a substantial amount of time” he started. “If it were to happen to me, there’s really nothing you can say that’s just going to make me smile at that point. That’s just like telling somebody who just got laid off and they got three kids at home and the 1st is in three days; you gotta keep the lights on, some food – what can you really say to that person?”
The narrative for the Warriors this season has been how good they could be if they remained healthy. Two games in and they’re already down one man. The difference between this year’s team and years past is the depth, especially at the wing position. That depth will now be put to the test a lot earlier than they had anticipated. The question now is: out of Barnes, Jefferson and Green, who will step up and fill the void left by Rush? Obviously none of these three can provide the combination of defense, athleticism and long-range shooting that Rush brought to the table which leaves Mark Jackson the unenviable task of once again piecing things together without all of his best tools.
An MRI is scheduled tomorrow for Rush to determine the extent of the damage.
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