The Oklahoma City Thunder are staring at a daunting 3-1 deficit in the Western Conference semifinals after losing a tough Game 4 in overtime. Kevin Durant struggled down the stretch, which made it difficult for the Thunder to score.
The absence of Russell Westbrook couldn’t have been more evident in this contest. This was the type of game where his skills were severely needed.
Throughout the final quarter and the extra period of Game 4, Thunder players deferred to Durant and occasionally seemed afraid to shoot. Every single play revolved around getting the ball to Oklahoma City’s leading scorer and when that failed, so did the offense.
Tony Allen stuck to Durant like glue. For some reason, Scott Brooks repeatedly called for Derek Fisher to set a screen for the 6’11’’ forward on the block with the intent of freeing him up.
Allen would have none of it and consequently prevented any Durant catch in this set. OKC adjusted and had Kendrick Perkins — a hellacious screen setter — set picks on the Grizzlies’ primary perimeter defender.
The strategy freed up KD ever so slightly. He got open around the elbow area, but became incredibly crowded once he caught the ball. Mike Conley came crashing down from the perimeter, basically ignoring Reggie Jackson.
In addition, the man defending Perkins jumped out on Durant as well and essentially created a triangular prison (with Allen shading him as he recovered from the screen). From there Durant either had to shoot the mid-range jumper or pass the ball to open teammates that played the roles of reluctant shooters.
Instead, Durant shot the ball and missed. Often.
In the fourth quarter and overtime of Game 4, Durant was 2-of-13 shooting from the field. Part of that falls on his shoulders because of his shot selection. He had a few semi-contested looks he created himself but missed those as well.
Below is his shooting chart from the final period and overtime courtesy of NBA.com/stats:
His coaching staff coupled with his teammates failed him. At no point did the Thunder run an action for another player to create a high percentage shot. Durant was never used in a fashion where he could be the recipient of a pass for an open look from an aggressive teammate.
The team became far too enamored with watching him operate and attempt to beat one of the best defenses in the league by himself.
Last week, Bomani Jones made the statement on the Dan LeBatard show that Oklahoma City will only truly compete for a title the moment Kevin Durant walks into the office of Sam Presti and demands a coaching change.
Although that is a little harsh, there is something to be said on that front. The Grizzlies’ defense is smothering Durant and his coaching staff hasn’t adjusted. When Westbrook was present, he caught a lot of flak for adlibbing whenever the KD option portion of the playbook got bottled up.
But in actuality he gave the offense a different look whenever the team’s leading scorer was being taken out of the game by multiple defenders. With Westbrook out, that release valve is simply no longer available.
No one on the team is secure or talented enough to ignore Durant and create something out of nothing when they can’t effectively get him the ball.
Unless the Thunder figure this out, they will be watching the Western Conference finals at home.
Questions or comments? Feel free to leave them in the comments section or you can contact me by email at [email protected].
This wasn’t so much a game as it was a searing reminder of asymmetrical power. Sure, the Warriors could have played better three-point defense, over-extended themselves less often towards dribblers and died on fewer screens. That would have certainly helped make this less of a blowout. But on a night like tonight, what does it matter, really? When faced with so inexorable a force as Kevin Durant on his game, is there any option other than to submit meekly?
One sequence best highlighted the talent chasm between these two teams. Westbrook swooped in on a greased zipline to throw an axe through Curry’s layup. Durant grabbed the ball, smoothly accelerated down the court, and unloaded on the rim like a wave that slowly builds before crashing all at once. To see it was to know that Golden State isn’t beating this team in a series, or probably any other team in these playoffs for that matter. The Warriors are a well-coached squad, with much to take pride in. But all the pride and dedication in the world aren’t overcoming the physical deficit against an elite team like OKC.
I’ve been listening to Dan Carlin’s Hardcore History podcast series, in addition to doing some reading on Genghis Khan’s Mongol army. Carlin paints a wonderful visual picture of how those nomadic horseback peoples appeared so terrifyingly exceptional. Unlike sedentary city folk, these Mongol warriors rode horses from age 3 on, and developed incredible musculature from operating a 160 lbs bow in adulthood. They were the athletic freaks of their day. They wholly overwhelmed ground-bound, slack-jawed regular joes with a brutality and efficiency that can’t be replicated sans electricity in modern society. Thank God for that too, because these guys created the illusion of snowcapped mountains by stacking the bones of the conquered on hillsides.
Khan’s Mongol army was a collective human force of nature that didn’t look so human when compared to the humans they were killing. When watching Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook (who missed some layups) rush at the Warriors with a force I associate with military transportation vehicles, I was reminded of Khan’s mongols, sweeping through a once proud civilization and rendering it ash. The Warriors clinched the playoffs last game. After this game, it felt like the Thunder had eliminated them from the postseason. It wasn’t quite like seeing human bones drape the Oakland hills, but perhaps OKC’s saving that trick for the playoffs.
It’s not Golden State’s fault. They have a fine player in Stephen Curry, and a few decent surrounding guys. Mark Jackson spoke of “charging this one to the game,” as if to indicate that such a learning experience simply can’t be avoided. If so, he’s right. The Oklahoma City Thunder can’t be stopped. At least not by this roster as of yet, and not over a seven game series. Until the Warriors develop better health (Andrew Bogut sprained his ankle, again) in combination with some faster, bigger help, a low seed is likely the ceiling. Regardless of seeding, it’s difficult to escape OKC’s ultimate wrath out West.
Preview: The Oklahoma City Thunder (57-21) are one of the best teams in the league. They presently own the best record in the Western Conference and their plus-9.2 scoring differential is the best in the NBA.
In other words, they are an incredibly difficult team to beat.
Conventional wisdom would have you believe every discussion centered around the Thunder starts with Kevin Durant, but that isn’t quite the case anymore.
Durant is the league’s premier scorer by virtue of his almost comical efficiency. His shooting figures have reached the same stratosphere as Dirk Nowitzki, Larry Bird and Steve Nash. That’s a tier reserved only for the best of the best, and KD is headlining it right now.
That very same efficiency has made him the league’s top clutch (defined as last five minutes of the game with the scoring margin within five points or less) scorer this season. He just does it all.
Per Synergy Sports, Durant is converting 51.4 percent of his shots in post-up situations. This used to be an area where he struggled because of his lack of strength.
Also, Synergy Sports tells us that he’s making 48.5 percent of his shots as the pick-and-roll ball handler. Again, once upon a time, his handle on the ball wasn’t great. But he’s turned every weakness into an advantage.
This explains why the Thunder sport the league’s best offensive efficiency with KD on the floor and a merely average offense when he rides the pine per NBA.com’s advanced stats tool.
Truly, it’s extremely easy to get caught up in Kevin Durant’s production and attribute all of the credit for the team’s success his way.
But the recent results of #NBArank certainly outline that this isn’t quite the case. Russell Westbrook was rated as the fifth best player in the league, a spot he’s earned quite honestly.
Many get caught up in the instances when he’s somewhat out of control and consequently marginalize his talent as a point guard. The former Bruin certainly has his flaws, but the positives consistently outweigh the negatives.
Many despise when he pulls from 3-point range in transition, but Synergy Sports tells us he makes that shot 39.4 percent of the time.
In addition, his turnovers coupled with his low shooting percentages are less than ideal at the point guard position, or so the saying goes.
Mind you, since March 1st, Westbrook is averaging 24.4 points, 6.4 assists and 2.7 turnovers per game on 45.3 percent field goal shooting.
Surprisingly, when Russ is off the floor, the Thunder offense takes a step back. It’s still more than above average, but it’s no longer in the top five of the league according to NBA.com’s advanced stats tool.
In short, Russell Westbrook is essential to the Thunder’s success. It’s worth noting that this isn’t merely a two-man operation. Terrific complementing parts surround the duo.
Each and every player on the roster has a specific role they embrace that makes the team what it is.
Scott Brooks’ unit is in the running for home court advantage in the west, and all of that talent will be on full display at Oracle Arena tonight.
This will be Oklahoma City’s last game against an opponent with a winning record this season and you have to believe that means something. The Thunder will want to send a message in front of a national television audience.
The atmosphere will still be one of a regular season game, but it should still make for an awesome game tonight.
Enjoy.
Statistical support provided by NBA.com.
Questions or comments? Feel free to leave them in the comments section or you can contact me by email at [email protected].
The Warriors are well on their way towards their first playoff berth since the 2006-2007 season, better known as the “We Believe” campaign. For those analytics people out there, the Warriors have a 97% chance at making the playoffs according to Hollinger’s NBA Playoff Odds (his odds also have the Warriors at .03% chance to win the Finals, but what does he know?).
The last month and a half or so have been stressful for Warriors fans. The Warriors had a six game losing streak stretching through the All-Star break, which began with the infamous 119-140 drumming by the Rockets and concluding with the 101-115 loss in Utah.
One week later, the Warriors started another multi-game losing streak that started with the post-fight loss in Indiana and ending with one of the more disappointing losses of the season, a loss to the hapless 76ers which ended their seven game losing streak.
Since the March 4 win vs. Toronto, the Warriors have seemingly been trading a couple wins with a loss or two, giving Warriors fans some relief while also raising more questions. This team is no way a powerhouse, but that doesn’t mean their chances of advancing in the Western Conference playoffs is out the window.
The most common question raised amongst fans after wins is: “Who do we want to play in the first round?” While on the contrary, after losses — like the 95-115 home loss vs. Chicago — had fans asking: “Where would we be with James Harden!?” or saying “This team won’t win a game in the first round.”
It’s quite entertaining to see the struggle that many go through on a game-by-game basis. The Warriors are an above average club in the midst of a surprisingly successful season with a second year coach and the 11th youngest roster in the NBA (average age being 25.9). Still, many are treating this team like say, Dallas, who is normally a perennial playoff power but is in the middle of a downtrodden, lottery-bound mess.
Before we declare who we’d rather face in the first round of the playoffs, it’s very much necessary to know what this team really is. This is also known as being a realist, which if you’ve been with this team for any longer than this season, you know these are few and far between in Warriors Ground. With that said, let’s look at the most likely first round candidates this team will have to play.
Disclaimer: if this team collapses, misses the playoffs and heads into an off-season full of typical Warriors mayhem, don’t be afraid to blame yours truly.
With the Golden State Warriors (30-18) taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder (36-12) tonight (5:00 p.m. PT), the Warriors World staff previewed the contest with a 3-on-3 post.
1. Best player now: Klay Thompson or Kevin Martin?
Jack Winter, Warriors World: Martin, but it’s closer than basic raw numbers suggest. Martin’s long been one of the NBA’s most efficient players – he’s taken an inordinate amount of free throws over the course of his career for a deadeye long-range shooter – and that’s hardly changed in his first season as a member of the Thunder. He’s shooting 45.3% overall, 43.8% from beyond the arc and 90.4% at the charity stripe, all combining for a career-high and position-leading true shooting percentage of 61.9. But Martin’s sacrificing touches for the first time in his career and is tasked with creating less off the dribble, too, leading to a stark decrease in free throw attempts. That discrepancy from his career norms and the usual sieve-like defense make him a legitimate Sixth Man of the Year candidate anyway, but choosing him over Golden State’s sharpshooting sophomore isn’t the layup it once was. Thompson, meanwhile, is getting better by the game. After a rough start to what was supposed to be a breakout season, he’s back to his hyper-efficient self and is slowly but surely adding more as a playmaker, too. But what makes this either/or close – and will eventually swing it in his favor – is Thompson’s underrated play on the other end of the floor. He’s an active, dedicated defender with good physical tools, and in time should grow into an easy ‘plus’ defensively. That’s not to say he isn’t already; after all, opposing shooting guards register just a 12.5 PER when Thompson is on the floor. All that said, it’s still Martin… for now.
Jordan Ramirez, Warriors World: This isn’t really a fair question, considering Martin is in his ninth season playing for his third team in the NBA and Thompson is still in his second season. Martin is the better, more consistent player right now as a result. Both are 6’7′, Klay is slightly bigger which makes him a better defensive prospect, but Martin benefits right now playing with Oklahoma City, a team with championship talent and championship aspirations. This isn’t a knock on Thompson, who has played well of late despite his overall inconstancy this season, it’s just a byproduct of the comparison. Martin has seen more, played longer and has stayed consistent more than Thompson has, but Thompson has the ability to be a more valuable asset than Martin has if he tweaks his game a little bit. Hint: pump fakes, his aggressiveness and his perimeter defense.
J.M. Poulard, Warriors World: Kevin Martin has the better PER figure as well as a higher true shooting percentage, which is indicative of his superior play this season. He’s been a sniper from long-range throughout the season whereas Thompson’s seen his 3-point shooting fluctuate some during the season although it’s picked up as of late.
Martin has been good shot creator for the majority of his career and that’s been the case this season as well, but playing alongside Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook has led to him being the recipient of passes for easier shot attempts than at any other point in his career and he’s taken advantage of that to make the Thunder offense a sensational one. Per NBA.com’s advanced stats tool, with Martin on the bench, the Thunder would boast the eighth best offense in the league, but with the guard on the floor, the figure jumps up to 113 points per 100 possessions, which would easily represent the best figure in the NBA.
At present time, the answer is Kevin Martin.
2. Who has the better game tonight: Stephen Curry or Russell Westbrook?
Jack Winter: Curry, but it’s a hunch. Can you really see him endure another poor outing after last night’s listless performance in Houston? Curry went 3-12 from the field and was held below double-figures for the first time since December 12th against the Rockets, and will no doubt look to right his ship from the get-go tonight. Helping things is the Thunder’s sometimes undisciplined defense; they can lose shooters when the ball swings to an extra side, and Westbrook in particular is prone to falling asleep on longer possessions. None of that’s to say Westbrook won’t go off, though. He’ll have ample opportunities to prove himself as a jumpshooter facing Golden State’s pick-and-roll defensive attack, and without Andrew Bogut to protect the rim will obviously get to the paint on occasion, too. So expect aggression from both guys, but recent trends – Curry’s poor shooting and Westbrook’s hot shooting – support the notoriously fickle law of averages.
Jordan Ramirez: Curry exploded for 31 points, seven assists and four rebounds in their last meeting in Oakland, cooking Westbrook for most of the game as the All-Star guard struggled mightily from the field (3-for-16 from the field, 10 points, six turnovers). However Curry is coming off one of his worst games of the season against Houston and is in Oklahoma City for tonight’s matchup. The odds are in Westbrook’s favor as he statistically plays better at home (44% shooting at home vs. 40% on the road), but I still say Curry has the better statistical game. It’s practically impossible for Curry to have a worse game than he did last night and he’s proven multiple times this season that resiliency is in his blood. I expect Curry to have the better game, which may or may not equal a Warriors win.
J.M. Poulard: It’s tempting to go along with Stephen Curry here, given that Russell Westbrook has a tendency to occasionally lose focus on the defensive end and even play some overaggressive defense; but Russell Westbrook is also an overpowering athlete that usually finds ways to get whatever shots he wants against defenders and tonight won’t be an exception.
RW will probably take Curry down to the block a few times but more so than anything he should victimize the Davidson product in the pick-and-roll where he is adept at splitting the traps and also getting into the paint whenever the big man defending the screen-roll action just sags into the paint.
Expect Stephen Curry to face a bit of foul trouble.
3. Is Kevin Durant your choice for MVP at this point in the season?
Jack Winter: No, and it’s not quite as close as you’d think. Durant is enjoying the best season of his career and one of the best individual seasons ever, actually, shooting with efficiency heretofore unseen for such a prolific scorer, showing new and still-developing court sense/playmaking ability and an improved commitment to defense. He’s already historically great, he’s just 24 years old and he’s clearly getting better. But that doesn’t make Durant the MVP, not with a better-than-ever LeBron James still in the league. And barring more separation between OKC and Miami in the standings plus a downturn in the play of the latter, that won’t change as the regular season comes winds down.
Jordan Ramirez: LeBron James is the MVP. He’s the Heat’s leading scorer, rebounder, assist man and also leads the team in steals, all while guarding the opposing team’s best player most of the time. He’s a better defender than Durant and does more for his team than Durant does. Without LeBron on the floor that Heat fail to function, they look like chickens with their heads cut off really. While the Thunder are insanely better with Durant on the floor, he isn’t as valuable to his own team as LeBron is to the Heat. We often take advantage of his numbers (26.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 7.0 APG), which is simply foolish for a talent that will never come around again. People are fascinated with the game winners and clutch scoring, an area where Durant does outshine LeBron, but that’s not enough to propel Durant to the MVP award. Don’t become a product of the First Take narrative, enjoy how LeBron plays the game and what he does for his team, which is pretty much everything.
J.M. Poulard: No. This one will probably go down to the wire, but despite the fact that Kevin Durant is enjoying his best ever season as a pro, the reigning league MVP has somehow enhanced his already incredible value as a player and to the Heat and the league by also submitting his best season to date in the NBA.
Much like Durant, LeBron James is displaying the best scoring efficiency of his career thanks to a career high true shooting percentage, but where he differentiates himself is in the playmaking department as well as his defensive value to the Miami Heat.
Miami’s defense is at its best whenever James is on the floor whereas that is still debatable for the ever-improving Kevin Durant. Indeed, OKC surrenders 100.4 points per 100 possessions with Durant on the bench, and improve (slightly) to 100 points per 100 possessions when he hits the floor.
The differential for James is a bit larger because of his ability to defend multiple positions, help and recover and drastically reduce the high percentage scoring opportunities of his main assignment whether on the perimeter or in the low post. And he does it all by avoiding fouls.
Durant and James are separated by the tiniest of margins, but right now James has a slight edge.
Although I have yet to hear much about this recent development, it seems as though Oklahoma City and Los Angeles are headed for a collision course in the playoffs based on their regular season performance about a quarter through the season.
The Los Angeles team pertinent to this conversation at this moment in time would be the Clippers (21-6) and not the Lakers (13-14), although there is an incredibly small chance that the Thunder (21-5) could potentially face off against the purple and gold in the first round of the postseason.
Nonetheless, OKC and Lob City currently occupy the top spots in the Western Conference standings thanks to their collective efforts as basketball clubs. Continue Reading…
The emergence of the New York Knicks (18-5) as a potential championship contender has not only revived the city of New York in ways many felt weren’t possible unless Eli Manning was involved but it has also now led many to ponder about Carmelo Anthony’s place amongst his peers in the game today.
Granted, the topic of discussion clearly has a prisoner of the moment feel to it, but the subject is nonetheless a propos considering that the Syracuse product is playing the best basketball of his career.
During this past summer, ESPN.com ran for the second year in a row the #NBARank project that asked bloggers and writers to rank all of the players in the NBA. Anthony clocked in at 17th and it seemed to be relatively on point considering his play during the regular season as well as his showing in the playoffs.
A lot has changed since then.
Melo has embraced the role of power forward and consequently has seen an increase in his statistical production. His usage rate (percentage of a team’s possessions) is at a career high and leads the league, but this isn’t necessarily synonymous with a player being a ball hog.
If anything, Melo has gotten the ball closer to the hoop and has been much more decisive with it this season in terms of making a quick move to get himself into scoring position and simply accepting the added attention and making the pass that leads to an assist for another player.
Add it all together and Melo is the second leading scorer in the league with 27.9 points per game on 47.3 percent field goal shooting.
But now the juicy stuff: is Anthony the best small forward in the league at the moment?
Securing that label is undoubtedly the toughest task in the NBA given that involves eclipsing both LeBron James and Kevin Durant.
The narrative at the moment is that Carmelo’s team first approach combined with his more efficient play have made him one of the most unstoppable forces in the Association and those points are not without merit. Indeed, performing at a high level in the media capital of the world is going to get you noticed, and such is the case for Anthony, but is it fair to say that he’s surpassed his peers yet?
Not quite.
For all the talk about how better Anthony has been this year, he still trails Kevin Durant in player efficiency rating.
The Oklahoma City (19-4) superstar is not scoring as much as his counterpart, but he outpaces him in rebounding and true shooting percentage (all shooting figures combined) by virtue of converting a higher percentage of his field goal and free throw attempts. In addition, Durant is doing a better job on the boards this year and has improved as a playmaker to better complement his teammates this season as evidenced by the spike in his assist numbers.
Even more impressive, Durant has done all this by reducing his usage rate as well as his turnovers.
And just for good measure, KD has slowly started to become more of a post up option to take advantage of the defenders that are being asked to guard him but that clearly do not have the size to bother him on his shot attempts. MySynergySports tells us that 12.7 percent of the three-time scoring champ’s field goal attempts have originated directly from the low block and he’s converted 54.7 percent of those shot attempts.
Hence, Carmelo is unquestionably playing the best ball of his life, but it’s still a small notch below the level of production of the Texas product.
Can he tug on James’ cape though?
Considering that Anthony is approaching Durant’s class but isn’t his equal as a player, it would be difficult to remove LeBron from his throne without the benefit of a political coup or a defiant act of treason from the King. Seriously, that’s what it would take for Melo to appropriate himself the title of best forward in the league.
James is not only leading the league in PER — he’s leading Kevin Durant by a small margin — but he has also reduced his turnovers, improved his rebounding figures and cut down his usage rate from last season, all the while converting a career high 42.4 percent of his shots from 3-point range.
His back to the basket game has seen some refinement but it’s still a work in progress so to speak. James spends a lot of times on the block probing the defense, looking to set up teammates and after taking a few hard dribbles, he usually ends up firing a tough fade away jumper. This explains why he is only shooting 41.4 percent from the field in post up situations per Synergy.
In the same breath though, James is a much better catch shoot player this year, as evidenced by his scorching 61.8 percent field goal shooting in spot up situations, as tracked by Synergy.
With that said, the most impressive and yet perturbing aspect of James’ play so far this season has been his occasional disengagement; especially when playing against inferior competition. The three-time MVP has spent a couple of quarters per game coasting and then turning it on late with the game hanging in the balance. The end result is that Miami has been in more tight contests than anticipated, but the Heat have managed to eek out wins nonetheless.
And that’s where LeBron’s brilliant gifts shine their brightest: in the clutch.
The reigning league MVP is mixing things up this year and attacking defenses at their weakest points to find the play with the highest percentage of success to take down opponents.
According to NBA.com’s advanced stats tool, Kevin Durant is tied with Stephen Curry for the league lead in total points scored in the clutch (clutch is defined as the last five minutes of the game with the scoring margin within five points) with 52, while James is relatively far away with 37 points.
This is where things get interesting.
James has been at his best in crunch time actually because he is a threat to score, but not because he is exclusively looking to do so. Have a look at the production of Anthony, Durant and James in the clutch when projected over 40 minutes:
Player
PPG
RPG
APG
FG%
Anthony
27.2
17.6
0.0
.375
Durant
44.3
5.0
3.4
.600
James
29.0
12.5
11.8
.520
With that data obtained from NBA.com’s advanced stats tool, it’s quite amazing to see the production of all three players in the clutch when projected over 40 minutes (I picked 40 minutes because it’s the amount of minutes superstars generally play in the postseason).
Anthony’s scoring is on par with his regular numbers, but his rebounding climbs up dramatically while his assists are non-existent. By no means does this suggest that Melo has been a chucker in the clutch — although his shooting figures might lead one to believe that — considering that he has made passes to open teammates that then shared the ball with a more open player. The one knock on Melo in the clutch — and it’s a fairly big one — so far this season ahs been his inability to connect with any consistency form the field. It’s worth noting that’s he played the least amount of clutch minutes out of the three superstars, by virtue of the Knicks taking care of business on most nights, but it’s still an area requiring improvement.
As it pertains to Durant, his rebounding figures take a huge dip, while his assists remain decent but his scoring coupled with his field goal percentage make him the NBA’s premier crunch time scorer. Heck, in the last five minutes of the game with the scoring margin within five points, Durant has an absurd 75 percent true shooting percentage. 75 percent!
Give him the ball and get out of the way folks.
James on the other hand simply morphs into a more athletic and superior version (gulp!) of the 1987 edition of Magic Johnson when crunch time surfaces. Between the scoring, rebounding and playmaking, as well as his superb individual and team defense, James is in a class all his own at the moment.
Some would argue that LeBron obtains these outlandish stat lines by virtue of dominating the ball in crunch time, but NBA.com tells us that his clutch usage rate of 29.7 is vastly inferior to both Durant (36.0) and Anthony (35.6).
Carmelo Anthony is playing some spectacular basketball this season, but he’s not quite yet on the same playing field as the Durantula and the King. That’s a knock on Melo, but rather a testament to just how great the Kevin Durant and LeBron James are.
Statistical support provided by NBA.com.
Questions or comments? Feel free to leave them in the comments section or you can contact me by email at [email protected].
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