Adjusted for Winflation, Salary Protection

David Lee’s (Assists+Blocks+Points+Rebounds+Steals) – Anthony Randolph’s (Assists+Blocks+Points+Rebounds+Steals)

Because a GM’s résumé is glued to whom he casts away. To trade a young lottery pick is to seal that kid’s future under the résumé’s lamination. So much of Larry Riley’s legacy is out of his hands now. If Anthony Randolph turns into Josh Smith, “Larry Riley” turns into the pejorative. If Anthony Randolph implodes–an “if” less iffy, in light of AR’s early Knicks struggles–the Warriors court relief where regret might lurk.

So, I’m slowly charting the process while not adjusting for pace. Whenever a day sees the Knicks and Warriors play, my recap features the RRI. When it’s in the negative, we’ll know that AR wins the night in this bastardization of fantasy hoops. When it’s in the positive–where the RRI should live–David Lee makes me regret my Randolph regret.

This is an arbitrary measure of success, and it is not trenchant statistical analysis. But it will be an amusing bottom-page graphic for the League Pass addicts who yearn for the day when Anthony turns potential into realization.

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Keith Smart, pointing to what?

Follow the 2010-2011 Warriors, step onto an unmarked train. Who knows where this new roster is headed? Who knows what to expect from Keith Smart–he might jump out of a cake at your birthday. Perhaps he’s sitting behind you, shaving his head, using your laptop’s reflective powers. Here are some early predictions for the 2011 Dubs:

Kelly Dwyer, Yahoo: 21 wins

Jeremy Britton, Wages of Wins: 50+ wins

John Hollinger, ESPN: 32 wins

My, that’s some range. To parse, I’ll hold a magnifying glass to three games in three different realities. Here’s how it goes:

Reality #1: Kelly Dwyer: 21 Wins

A disaster. A complete catastrophe brought about by an incomplete, oft-injured band of headless roosters. Playoffs hopes are hopeless in the face of a team that oozes incompetently accommodating defense. Keith Smart’s name grows more ironic by the game. The descent into stink began:

Date      Opp                 Result
11/10    @New York    L 110-93

David Lee’s homecoming gives way to Anthony Randolph’s rim wrecking. The hopping giraffe has captured New York’s imagination by mirroring the city’s intensity. It’s 23-12-5 for the guy whom Nellie was crazy enough to straightjacket. D’Antoni’s crew cruises to a crushing victory, as an impotent David Lee shrugs meekly from the sidelines. He re-injured his wrist prior to the Eastern road trip, the Warriors will drop all five games of the jaunt. Biedrins and Wright solemnly shoulder the dead defense like bereaved relatives carrying a heavy coffin. It’s chaos as rotations collide into each other like planets lacking gravity. Monta Ellis is scowling, sulking, shooting Curry some Medusa stares. Injuries will be milked, bearing a curdled, rotting season.

Date      Opp        Result
12/10    Miami    L 123-98

The drumbeat for Smart’s ouster starts thudding as the Warriors are 5-18. A home game against the league’s hottest commodity might shake loose some ankle-biting critics. Smart pulls out all the tricks, the players summon maximum grit, and…it doesn’t matter because the Warriors suck and teams don’t just win games out of simply wanting to. Stephen Curry is on his second sprained ankle, he injures it again when LeBron lands a universe-melting dunk. As Curry writhes, Bosh snickers and high fives James. Wade points and mockingly asks Steph if he needs to see the middle school nurse. The Heat are taking this villain thing a little too far.

Date    Opp                  Result
4/10    Sacramento    W 110-109

A late season push has pulled in a playoff berth! Not for the Warriors, oh no, but for the mighty Kings. They of the questionable character have an unquestioned hold on the NorCal crown. DeMarcus Cousins is NBA gold, wrapped in a tantrum. Tyreke Evans has passed and lapped the stricken Stephen Curry–now Oklahoma City knows what to regret.

In typical Warriors fashion, they won’t let bad enough be. No, they must win when winning is losing. A last second Reggie Williams buzzer beater is celebrated by the crowd, out of Pavlovian instinct. It costs the number one pick. Keith Smart signs an extension for reason beyond comprehension. Ellis demands a trade. Rumors about Curry and New York float off into another “Zero games in 40 nights” second season.

Reality #2: Jeremy Britton, Wages of Wins: 53 Wins

Continue Reading…

(I’m profiling the big three unpredictable factors for this upcoming Warriors season. Today, the focus is on a forgotten man)

Brandan Wright. He still exists. He still looks like a sad Dracula. His shoulder still slumps atop his arm, waiting to explode all over some unsuspecting baseline. In this Summer interview, he mentions the possession of “unbearable potential,” which is either a malapropism or Freudian reveal: Continue Reading…

Maybe it’s the intense, dry, brain boiling heat of Las Vegas, or the conversation with outside basketball observers, but I feel a bit better than I did last week about the AR trade.

Trading young athletic forward Carlos Rogers, Anthony Randolph along with Kelena Azabuike, and fan favorite Ronny Turiaf to New York for all-star power forward David Lee, sent Warriors fans into a tail spin. This is a trade that angers fans because of ‘potential.’  Many feel that Randolph has more upside than David Lee.  This is a subjective and hopeful feeling that is fostered by the Warriors every time they draft a player and he has any kind of success.  As fans of a team that has made the playoffs once in the last 16 years, you have to allow yourself to hope. Hope can turn into tickets,  jerseys, and unrealistic player expectations.

Hope in the face of suffering is why I have 4 autographed Larry Hughes jerseys, why the arena was packed on draft night, and why the Warriors continue to draw some of the best attendance in the league.  If you scramble your roster every single year, you can always talk about how things are different.  There is always hope when there is change….if you market it correctly.  Change allows the Warriors sell tickets every year based on hope and potential. When a player they hyped as having amazing franchise turnaround capabilities gets traded for anyone short of a top 10 player, the fans have a violent reaction.

Face it, the Anthony Randolph trade is actually good for the Warriors.  Yes, it leaves me with yet another outdated autographed player jersey, but maybe the Warriors will let me trade it for a David Lee jersey. AR had potential, but it is a crap shoot if he ever realizes it.  His first year he wasn’t motivated, and needed a fire lit under him to get it together.  He bounced back with a great summer league, and a decent start to the season, but he was still a tweener without any solid back to the basket moves, an inconsistent jump shot and no real position.  AR is a project that may or may not pay off and a lot of that is dependent on his desire to work, improve, get better.

David Lee is an all star power forward who plays in an up-tempo system  and can be expected to put up similar numbers here in Golden State.  He works on his game, and tries hard every night.  He has character, maturity, and a high basketball IQ.  Warriors fans would have loved to have AR aspire to be a more athletic version of David Lee.

Lee has 40 lbs on AR, plays closer to the basket, generated a higher FG% in his first 2 years, is a better foul shooter,  rebounder,  and has shown improvement every year.  Lee plays a position that we haven’t had a solid starter in for decades.  The Warriors now have a pairing with Curry / Lee that could rival the Nash / Stoudemire combo that ran up and down courts in the west for years.  1 all star and 1 future all-star playing their actual positions, under Don Nelson, amazing.

Instead of rolling the dice on hope, we made a solid basketball move. It hurts, but it’s for the best.

(One minor note: I’m finally using my full name, not that any sane person should care. I wanted some distance from an old NBA PR job, but those days seem long gone. Might as well go full government name.)

Eventually, when we’re all old and I’ve grown a gray Baron beard, someone will purchase this mess. The worth shall inherit the meek. I have no clue why the David Lee for Anthony Randolph deal happened, or how it impacts the Warriors price tag. Pre-deal, the Warriors roster was intriguingly flexible. Now, Larry Coon can’t glance at our cap situation for fear of turning to stone.

Here’s what I’m certain of: The buyer of the Warriors can’t bring Anthony Randolph back. Continue Reading…

2010 Warriors Defense

If the Warriors defense was dead, now it’s in hell.

Guard-Stephen Curry

Guard-Monta Ellis

Small Forward-Reggie Williams

Power Forward-Vladimir Radmanovic

Center-David Lee

If Nellie springs this five at any point next year, l might laugh up bile-soaked vomit. And would vomited laughter be less of a medical curiosity than Dubs defense? The Warriors are headed for D so absent, it’s unserious—even if sanity nixes Vlad-Rad minutes. Were Randolph, Azubuike, Maggette, and Turiaf great defenders? Nope, but they punched harder than most on the team, plus Turiaf was a shade better than decent. And Anthony Randolph had potential, an adjective the Warriors sell but never invest in. Continue Reading…

(Last time I exchanged emails with the San Jose Mercury’s Adam Lauridsen, a possible sale was in order. Well, Cohan’s still here and Anthony Randolph isn’t. The conversation begins yesterday–right before LeBron annoyed the world–and ends this morning.)

Sherwood Strauss: Perhaps a cathartic WW.net email exchange is in order?

Adam Lauridsen: Oh yeah.

SS: Okay, first email. Doesn’t it feel as though we have our own parallel LeBron drama? Only no one, with the exception of Knicks and Warriors fans, even cares? Oakland and Cleveland are connected right now, like miserable siamese twins. It’s a dreary kind of excitement. How are you facing our awful fate? Grim acceptance? Rage? Humor? Continue Reading…

From IshWarrior in the forum:

David Lee is probably the biggest Warriors’ FA signing…ever, but that’s not the point. Sure it is an improvement right now, we should have more wins than last year and we have a legitimate rebounding body right now, but it isn’t the most logical fix.

It’s my opinion that the Warriors needed to start looking at alternative directions for the team. After last year, the team became less about building around Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins (which many, including myself, argued for a couple years ago) and more about building around Steph Curry and the potential of Anthony Randolph.

The biggest deficiency in Warriors basketball is defense. It’s non-existent. Sure, our offense hits a high gear every once in a while and we have a single, or a string of, good games, but I think we all know very well that it won’t get the team very far (see 2006 playoffs). Signing a guy like David Lee who doesn’t really play a lick of defense is not addressing this very, very large concern. What he does, he does very well. He’ll get you some points, he’ll crash the boards, and he’ll run a pick-and-roll. He has defensive capability, but we don’t see it. Not the right move, Riley.

With the expectation of new ownership coming into town soon, meaning a new front office and new coaching, it is in the best interest of the fans that we give the “new” team as much flexibility as possible. Although Nelson and Riley might as well mail it in, that doesn’t mean go out there and continue the typical Warriors less-than-logical moves.

I know that this is just my opinion and several of you probably disagree, it was my dream scenario that the Warriors would stick with Steph Curry, Anthony Morrow (if we could get him to stick around), Anthony Randolph, Brandan Wright, and Ronny Turiaf. In the mean time, make the best of Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins. If they were a legitimate fit on this vision of the future, then go for it. If not, then send them out for young, cheap talent to go along with short (read: 1-year remaining), large contracts.

A year from now, that possibly meant a new owner: Larry Ellison. A new GM: Jerry West, Kevin Pritchard, or at least someone competent with a halfway decent track record. A new coach. And a roster consisting the aforementioned Stephen Curry, Anthony Randolph, Brandan Wright, Ronny Turiaf, hopefully Anthony Morrow, a flurry of expiring contracts, and maybe some young talent go to along with it. Sure the CBA is being re-written and this year was the year of free-agents, but the point is the Warriors would have a great deal of flexibility under a new ruler.

That’s what I feel should be in the best interest of fans. We need a totally new movement when the new owner comes around, and we’re putting a longer time-table on a redefined team with contracts like these. At best, we’re putting ourselves onto the road to no-man’s land. We could add some more talent and be a .500 team, not making the playoffs, and not getting a great pick. Not the goal of a basketball team. We should take note of the work by Sam Presti and Kevin Pritchard. Making smart moves to go with youth, stack up draft picks, scout well, and build a brighter future. Right now, the only thing keeping me sane is the wallet of the very well connected Larry Ellison, Stephen Curry, and the light, although not very bright, of the not-so-close future.

/Rant.