Note: Similar to the David Lee and Klay Thompson Watches during the regular season, WarriorsWorld will spend the Round 2 Playoff Series versus the Spurs examining the play of Jarrett Jack. Why Jack? Like Lee, fans have a love/hate relationship with Jack, who can look great and terrible in the same game; even the same possession. He has led the Warriors to many victories this season as a key sixth man, but it can also be argued that he’s caused a few defeats. He is a free agent at the end of the season, and his performance in the Spurs series will play a major role in deciding whether or not Jack will be back with the Warriors next season.

We are providing an unbiased look by watching Jarrett Jack, and only Jarrett Jack, on both ends of the floor for the entire series. This first installment covers Game 1 in San Antonio.

First Quarter:

Jack is the second player off the bench after Draymond and doesn’t check in until 4:23 of the first. Barnes out. 17-11 Warriors lead. He’s assigned to Neal on defense.

Jack immediately runs the point with Curry and Klay coming off screens.

After a Curry missed runner, in transition, Draymond picks up Manu and Jack retreats into the lane where Bogut and Curry are already situated. Jack leaves Neal wide open for a made corner three. With rim protection, there was no reason he shouldn’t have gotten right up on Neal. 17-14 4:02 left in the first quarter.

Later, Jack has Neal, who stands in the corner, waiting for a pass. Off a pick and roll, Manu gets in the lane but is guarded perfectly by Landry and Klay. Without a driving lane for Manu, Jack still decides to sag in the lane to help on the drive. Manu finds Neal wide open and he hits the corner three. Jack unnecessarily sagged off him. 22-19. 2:28.

Off a missed free throw, up 24-19, Jack gets the loose ball at the top of the key and makes a nice quick pass to Klay, but he misses a wide-open three.

Next possession, in transition, Jack drives into the lane and kicks it out to Klay at the 3-point line. Manu closes out, forcing Klay to drive into two Spurs for the offensive foul.

Jack is now working much harder on Neal late in the first.

He gets an assist off a one-handed bounce pass to Curry, who hits an elbow jumper coming off a screen. 26-21, 50.9.

After a Manu three, Jack brings the ball up, uses a Landry screen to get around Neal, crosses over Blair and hits a nice runner over Bonner. 28-24, 28.9.

He misses a runner on a very similar play as time ran out in first. 28-25.

Summary: Very bad start on defense, but finished the quarter well. Gave up two 3-pointers that he should have defended better. Made several nice passes and two good drives (made one and missed one).

Second Quarter:

Stays on Neal to start second.

Makes a nice swing pass to an open Landry, who travels while attempting to drive off a pump fake.

Stays home on Neal and lets Klay take Manu 1-on-1. Pays off, as Klay forces a miss and Jack gets in the lane to secure the defensive rebound.

Makes the same decision on the next possession with Draymond on Manu this time. Pays off again. Manu can’t kick it to Neal with Jack on him and forces a missed layup that is well defended by Draymond. Landry gets it to Jack off the miss and Jack takes it full court, sneaking by Neal and Bonner to convert a tough layup. Four points (2-3 FG). 32-27. 10:31 left in the second quarter.

Curry runs point and gets the ball to Jack on the wing. Jack tries to penetrate on Neal, Manu helps and reaches in for the steal. Manu goes at Klay on the break and dumps off to Neal for an easy layup. After losing the ball, Jack started that play ahead of Neal, but just stood there and Neal ran right passed him. If he hustles, he would have prevented an easy layup.

Jack continues playing off the ball. Off a Klay miss, Jack gathers the loose ball at the top of the key, and again, swings a one-handed pass to Klay. With no open shot, Klay drives but the Spurs tip the ball out of bounds.

Jack controls after a jump ball and runs the point. From the top of the key, he takes Danny Green 1-on-1 and gets an easy flip shot at the rim, but misses. He later gets it back after the offensive rebound and shoots a 20-footer over Neal at the top of the key that misses. Both misses were good shots he should take. Good shots he should make.

In transition, Jack drives and kicks to Barnes who swings to Klay for an open corner three. It misses.

Jack closes out strong on a Neal three, but Neal drives in and splits Jack and Klay, but missing the open layup. Solid Jack defense, but it leads to a Leonard offensive putback. 36-33. 7:22.

Side note: Klay hasn’t been hitting his threes, but my goodness, his defense has been amazing so far. Parker is really struggling against him. Huge benefit for the Warriors not having to rely on Curry or Jack to guard him.

Jack has done much better on defense since the first quarter. Working much harder and getting in the right spots.

With Manu in, Klay picks him up and Jack takes Parker. Off the ball, Parker curls around a Duncan screen on the block. Jack does a poor job fighting through the screen and Parker takes a pass and gets in the lane for an easy layup with Jack trailing behind him. Bogut didn’t offer any help, staying tight on Duncan the entire play. Based on Jack’s non-reaction, it looks like he did not expect any help from Bogut and understood he should have played that better. 44-37.

The Spurs appear to have a “Klay’s not guarding Tony” play. This time Curry is on Parker and he takes him 1-on-1 for an easy baseline jumper. 44-39. 3:52.

Jack runs the point and drives after a pick and roll with Bogut. He keeps dribbling and Danny Green reaches from behind to knock the ball away. Klay picks it up with the shot clock running down and hits a difficult running bank shot to bail Jack out.

Neal loses the ball on the baseline and Jack goes to the ground to get it. He rushes a quick pass to Barnes that glances off his shoulder right to Manu. Leads to two Parker free throws. Scorekeeper gives Barnes the turnover, but that was Jack’s fault. Bad pass. 46-43 2:37.

Parkers crosses Jack over at the top of the key and Jack goes down. Not good. Leads to two Duncan free throws. 48-45. 1:50.2

Jack makes a nice one-handed bounce pass to Bogut off a pick and roll. Bogut is fouled and makes one of two free throws.

Jack plays better defense on a Parker/Duncan pick and roll and hustles to defend a Parker jumper that misses.

The Bogut foul session by the Spurs begins.

Parker misses another jumper over Jack, who is working hard to get around Duncan screens at the top of the key. He didn’t like getting crossed over earlier and is responding well.

Plays tough defense after switching onto Duncan, but ref calls him for a foul in the lane. Duncan hits both free throws. 53-49 3.3.

Summary: 53-49 at the half.

Jack had five solid defense possessions and three poor ones, including not hustling back on defense after a turnover and giving up a layup. Deserved a second turnover after a bad pass to Barnes. Made one good pass and converted a tough layup.

Finishes half with four points (2-5 FG), one assist, one steal and one turnover.

Never came out after checking in late in the first quarter.

Third Quarter:

Jack sits most of third. The Warriors extend their lead to 78-70 with 3:11 left when Jack checks back in. Klay comes out with four fouls and Jack guards Manu. Curry had 10 points in nine minutes on the floor without Jack.

Curry keeps running the point with Jack in. After a barrage of baskets, Curry finally misses, but Jack hustles over as the ball rolls to the sideline, dives to gain possession and calls timeout before he or the ball go out of bounds. Excellent play to keep the possession alive. 83-72. 1:46.

Jack is guarding Neal now and staying tight on him at the 3-point line.

Jack gets the ball on the inbounds, but quickly gives it right back to the red-hot Curry, who dribbles the ball up the court and hits a running baker.

Jack makes a smart swing pass to Draymond, but he misses the wide-open corner three. Barnes rebounds and dunks it in. 92-75. 13.5 seconds left.

With four seconds left, Jack puts Neal in a headlock and is called for the foul. Very costly play and an obvious foul, yet Jack complains to the ref for some odd reason. 92-80 after the free throws and a missed running 3-pointer by Jack at the end of the quarter.

Summary: In three minutes during the quarter, Jack basically got to stand around and watch Curry make crazy shots, as he scored 12 of his 22 third-quarter points with Jack on the floor.

He made a great hustle play to retain possession, one good pass and one bad foul that allowed two points at an inopportune time.

Fourth Quarter:

Curry continues to run point. He gives it to Jack, who quickly finds Barnes. After dribbling a bit, Barnes gets it back to Jack with five seconds on the shot clock, forcing Jack to drive and force a tough runner over Neal that misses. No other player was open, so Jack did not have a choice there.

Jack plays solid defense on Neal, who forces a three off the dribble that misses.

With Curry blanketed, Jack drives the lane from the top of the key and forces a foul. Hits both free throws. 96-82. 10:23.

Jack finds Curry curling off a Barnes pick. Curry hits the three, but Barnes is called for a moving screen.

On defense, Jack again stays home on Neal at the 3-point line as Manu drives and forces a bad shot.

Up 98-82, Jack helps off Neal and Parker finds him for a wide-open three. But it misses.

Key play on the next possession, as Klay is fouled on a layup attempt, but there is no call. Leads to a Leonard free throw and what should have been a 100-82 lead is now 98-83 at the 8:02 mark and momentum ends for the Warriors.

In transition, Jack goes for a Duncan fake pass and leaves Parker open to drive the lane. He misses, but the Spurs rebound and Danny Green makes a running layup as the Warriors scramble on defense. 98-85. 7:30.

Jack runs the pick and roll with Landry at the top of the key and misses a good look. On the next possession, the exact same thing happens, this time with Bogut screening before the Jack missed jumper. After the miss, the Spurs come down in transition and Jack runs to Danny Green at the 3-point line as the ball goes over his head to Leonard, who makes the layup and is fouled by Curry. Tough to fault Jack here, but if he ran towards the basket opposed to Danny Green, he could have tipped or stolen the ball. After the Leonard free throw, it’s 98-88. 6:19. Jack is just 2-9 FG with six points for the game.

The Warriors are definitely trying to get the ball in Curry’s hands and let him run the point. After Barnes grabbed a defensive rebound, Jack and Mark Jackson both told him to give it to Curry, even though Jack was right next to Barnes. And yes, Curry looks gassed, but he just hit two finger-rolls. 102-88. 5:34. It happens again after a Bogut rebound and everyone points for Curry to get the ball.

Curry is stopped by Parker and Jack gets the ball with the shot clock running down. He drives the lane and forces a foul. Nice play. After the free throws, it’s 104-88 with 4:31 left. A sick Duncan goes to the locker room at this point.

Key point #2. Curry drives, loses the ball, and Draymond picks it up but misses an up-and-under layup he would normally make 9-out-of-10 times. Klay then fouls out with 3:57 left and Richard Jefferson checks in. After the free throws it’s 104-90.

Curry gets the ball to Jack, who takes six dribbles then misses a jumper over Parker.

104-94 and Jack brings the ball up. Off a double screen for Curry, Jack fires a poor one-handed pass at Curry that bounces to the Spurs. It leads to a transition layup for Leonard. 104-96. 2:42.

Jack brings the ball up, nearly loses the ball against Parker, gets Diaw on the switch, dribbles into the lane and forces a shot that misses badly. To his credit, he was fouled by Manu – worse than the other two drives where he received the foul call. The miss later leads to a steal by Draymond and those two awful free throws from Jefferson.

Guarding Manu, Jack switches to Leonard after a screen. He closes out too late once Leonard gets the ball from Manu. Leonard hits the three over Jack. Bad defense by Jack there. 104-99. 1:41.

After a Curry blocked three, in transition, Jack seems to pick up the dribbling Parker, but as Parker passes half court, Jack fades over to Manu, leaving Parker free to drive the lane. Parker glides through Curry and Barnes for the layup. 104-101. 1:18. Coaches always preach, “Stop the ball” in transition. I see what Jack was thinking there by fading to Manu, especially after he didn’t close out on Leonard on the previous possession, but that play hurt the Warriors.

Warriors run a set play for Landry in the post. It leads to a miss, a foul and two Diaw free throws. 104-103.

After Curry misses a forced shot, Warriors rebound and get to Jack at the top of the key. He starts the play with 11 seconds on the shot clock, 35 left in the game. He dribbles left towards the basket on Parker and hits an extremely difficult step-back jumper over Parker, Green and Manu. 106-103. 29.0 seconds left.

The love/hate relationship with Jarrett Jack is a real thing for Warriors fans.

Spurs ball. Jack on Leonard. Based on the ensuing play, the Warriors are switching on screens. Jack is screened by Danny Green. Curry takes Leonard. At first, Jack goes with Leonard, hesitates, then runs to Diaw as Danny Green runs to the 3-point line. Barnes was on Diaw and his job appears to have been to get around Diaw to close out on Green. Diaw held Barnes for a beat, which was long enough to leave Green open for the three. It’s good. 106-106.

Now, Jack started the play by not reacting quick enough on Green’s screen. He should have stayed with Green, because Diaw’s pick was not even close to Jack or Green. It was like he knew the Diaw screen was coming, so he went to Diaw when he didn’t need to. This forced Barnes to perform a near-impossible closeout when Jack could have stayed on green the whole time. On the flip side, if Jack and Barnes both go to Green, Diaw is open for a two with the Warriors leading by three. He probably doesn’t shoot and the Spurs look for a shot again with 16 seconds left on the shot clock.

Analyzing defense is a tough job because there are so many variables. But man, it looked like we can blame that on Jack.

The Spurs last possession was executed perfectly. The Warriors last possession was a hot mess. Overtime.

Summary: Jarrett Jack. Hate him or love him. Here’s what he did in the fourth by my account:

Good defense on Neal to force a missed three. He twice made good plays to drive the lane, force a foul and get free throws. At a crucial moment, he drove the exact same way, was fouled worse than the other two, but didn’t get the call as he missed badly. He made bad decisions on transition defense on two separate occasions that helped create a Spurs basket. He missed two jumpers he normally knocks down. He forced one bad jumper over Parker that missed and forced one bad step-back jumper over three Spurs players that went in at a crucial time. Made an awful pass to Curry that led to a turnover and a Spurs layup. Bad closeout on Leonard three that went in at crucial moment and bad defense that allowed Green to hit an open three to tie the game on the Spurs final possession in regulation.

First Overtime:

Jack plays the full five minutes of OT. He has possession off the jump ball and hits a tough pull-up jumper of Parker. 108-106.

Up 111-106, Jack blocks out Leonard nicely on a Spurs miss, helping a falling-out-of-bounds Draymond get the rebound and toss it to Jack.

After an open missed three from Barnes, Jack is guarding Parker and get crossed over as Parker goes baseline. But Jack quickly recovers and gets in good defensive position with his hand is Parker’s face. Parker pulls up for the shot anyway. It goes in. Good defense, better offense. 111-108. 3:22.

Jack is double-teamed driving baseline. He turns, jumps and fires it to an open Draymond in the key. Draymond rushes the shot as Diaw jumps out at him and it misses badly.

On the next possession, Jack defends Manu well, as Manu drives and Jack receives help from Bogut. Manu forces a bad pass and Curry steals it and goes in for the layup. 113-113. 1:16.

Leonard has Jack in the post 1-on-1. He turns in the lane and hits a jumper over Jack. Not good defense. Not bad. 113-115.

Under 30 seconds to play, Jack brings the ball up the court, crosses over at the top of the key to get into the lane and converts on a difficult driving layup to tie the game. 115-115. 20.3 left.

The Spurs hold for the last shot. Jack is off the ball guarding Bonner and Manu misses at the buzzer.

Summary: Excellent play by Jack in the first overtime. Scores four of the team’s nine points, including a clutch layup to tie the game. He made no bad decisions and had two solid defensive possessions with no bad ones.

115-115.

Second Overtime:

Nobody’s going to fault me if I just quit right now, right? Screw it. I’ve come this far. Let’s finish this up.

Spurs win the jump and Jack is on Manu. He helps as Leonard cuts through the lane. When Bogut tips the ball away, Jack is there to corral the ball and start the break. He goes 1-on-3 at the rim and finds Barnes at the basket. But Barnes forces a tough shot and misses, but gets his rebound. Jack gets the ball and swings it to a wide open Curry, who fakes, then misses an open three. Warriors retain possession as the Spurs knock it out. Curry takes the ball and gets it to Jack curling off a screen. He dribbles five times against Parker, goes between his legs and loses the ball, regains it and dribbles seven more times as Parker is playing solid defense. Diaw comes over to help, Jack picks up his dribble and forces as bad pass to Bogut that Danny Green steals.

The Warriors are up 120-119 as Curry runs the point, and drives and dishes to a wide-open Barnes who misses the three. Draymond is incorrectly called for a foul as he goes for the rebound and he is out with six. 2:24 left.

Down one, on a set play, Jack passes the ball into Landry but Danny Green shifts behind him and tips the ball away, leading to a Parker jumper. 120-123. 1:47. Landry has to do a better job sealing off the defender there.

Curry is rejected at the rim and Jack grabs the loose ball, dribbles to the top of the key, crosses over Parker to get in the lane, drives and is fouled. Apply, lather, rinse, repeat.

Jack misses one free throw. 121-123.

Has Jack made a lot of errors so far? Yes. Some critical. But no one on the Warriors gets in the lane and creates fouls and free throws except Jack. He deserves some credit for that.

Under a minute to play and the Spurs are up three. Manu has Jack 1-on-1 at the top of the key … and Manu shoots a very deep three with 11 seconds on the shot clock? What was he doing? The shot misses badly.

The Warriors close to one. Then take the lead on the crazy Bazemore layup.

If I’m giving credit to Jack for his drives, I have to discredit him here on the final Spurs possession.

127-126. 3.4 seconds to play. Jack starts on Diaw, Jefferson on Leonard who is inbounding. Parker comes around to receive the ball as Barnes is in full sprint guarding him. As Diaw cuts into the lane, Jack yells for Bazemore to take Diaw and he does. Problem is, Barnes was never screened, so Jack needed to rotate to Bazemore’s man, Manu. But Jack rushes at Parker, who is well guarded by Barnes. Leonard sees Manu wide open at the three point line and throws it to him. Jack watches as Bazemore sprints out from under the basket and tires to distract Manu. But it’s too late. The shot goes in. The Warriors lose.

Jack needed to rotate to Manu. He didn’t.

Game over.

Summary: After a great first overtime, Jack failed in the second OT. On one possession, Jack did all this: Right place right time to get the loose ball on a Bogut steal, makes a nice drive and dish to Barnes, who misses, but Jack gets it back and makes a nice pass to Curry, who misses an open three, then Jack gets the ball again, dribbles five times, loses it, regains it, dribbles seven more times and then throws it away.

Later, he made a nice drive to get free throws, hitting just one, but he then finished the game by allowing Manu to get a wide-open three pointer to win it for the Spurs.

Overall Scorecard: No need to tally everything up. No matter how well he played, Jack made several critical errors that led to the Spurs stealing the game. Bad game for Jack.

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Look, I’m not lecturing you on how to experience this crushing Game 1 loss. If you want to rail against Mark Jackson in the wake of disappointment, fine. That’s your process, and it’s probably no better than my own.

But, if you want something that analyzes the collapse without jumping to conclusions on how Jackson is “overmatched” or how he’s merely “good at motivation,” this isn’t the article for you. When something goes wrong, the first instinct is to blame. Since the coach theoretically can influence anything and everything, the blame often lands there. And Jackson isn’t blameless in this. It’s just that, I wouldn’t say the Warriors lost their heads or stopped running offense. The reality is a bit more complicated, and it’s probably a reality we wouldn’t care about had a bunch of unlucky events not piled on top of one another.

Let me unload my Jackson fourth quarter criticisms from the jump, to be clear. Curry needed a rest and Bogut needed to come in. To explain rather than excuse, Jackson sat Curry for a stretch against Denver in Game 6, and it contributed to a similar collapse. While I disagree with his not sitting Curry in Game 1, I understand why Jackson left him in, hoping to seal it up. As for Bogut…I never know what’s going on with Bogut. When is he healthy? When is he ailing? Did he injure his hand? When has he just had a pain shot in his ankle? Lacking that information, I usually steer clear of retroactively demanding that Jackson throw him in there.

As I see it, the 4th quarter collapse had three main Golden State components, divorced from San Antonio’s admirably well-run offense and defense down the stretch. Only the first one is connected to Jackson’s mistake in not resting Stephen Curry.

Tired, Ineffective Iso Curry

The Warriors got into isolation mode, and not necessarily because they intended to. Curry stalled out possessions, in part, because he appeared too tired to do anything else with them. Haggard-looking Steph just wasn’t opening up too many opportunities by waddling around Draymond Green’s screens and the offense gummed up as he dribbled in place.

The Warriors are a bit adrift in this odd situation where Jack and Curry share the floor, but Klay Thompson’s fouled out. Golden State likes to have Jack handle as Curry and Thompson prod the defense from different directions off the ball. Lacking Klay, but needing Jack, the Warriors were at sea. Curry was so slow on pick and roll that San Antonio easily loaded up to corral him, leading to ugly isolations. The 1:24 possession where Curry dribbled until launching a contested shot (blocked by Diaw) comes to mind. As an aside, the loss of Klay Thompson really hurt Golden State’s defense and sprung Tony Parker for easy baskets.

Diaw was huge (no jokes, please) for the Spurs during this stretch. Some of the iso-happy play occurred because Warriors guards thought they could take him. Turns out that getting around Diaw (no jokes, please) is really difficult in crunch time (no jokes, please).

Steph could have also stood to make better decisions. On the final play of regulation, Kent Bazemore was wide open. That was the look Curry should have hit, instead of trying to wrest a one-hander over two defenders. The good sign? Curry learned his lesson later on in the 2nd OT, hitting Bazemore for what would have been the game winner had it not been for Manu’s deep splash.

Jarrett Jack was Awful 

Jarrett Jack attached his imprint to three devastating Spurs three-pointers.

1:40: Jarrett Jack falls asleep on the switch, gives up a wide open Kawhi Leonard three. Leonard drains it, cutting the lead to 5.

0:20: Stephen Curry is guarding Danny Green, who’s setting a screen for Jack’s guy, Kawhi Leonard. Curry motions and yells for Jack to switch onto Green, as Curry takes Leonard. Jack either doesn’t hear or ignores Curry, resulting in the game-tying three from Green. This also sets up another Jack lapse later.

0:03 (2nd OT): We’re mostly discussing the regulation collapse, but the final San Antonio possession bears a mention. The Spurs have 3 seconds and they’re down by 2. On the inbounds, Jarrett Jack incorrectly assumes that Harrison Barnes has been screened, and commences a switch that Barnes has not called for. This puts Jack in no man’s land, and forces Kent Bazemore to cover Jack’s man, leaving Manu Ginobili open. Spurs win.

All of that is bad enough and we haven’t even considered Jarrett Jack’s missed isolation jumpers, and huge, befuddling play where he simply threw the ball away at 2:48 in regulation, fueling a Spurs fastbreak. What a maddening game from Jack.

Luck and the Whistle

Let’s have a brief, rational conversation about the refs. They certainly did not help the Warriors in that final 4 minutes. This isn’t to say it was a conspiracy, or even incompetence–a few of these calls could have gone either way. This isn’t to say the Warriors deserved to win, whatever that means. I’m merely making the observation that near every call went towards the opposition. Such comeback-favoring (and I use the word “favoring” in regards to results, not intent) ref influence almost has to happen for a historic collapse to occur. A lot of elements go into a lost 16-point lead over 4 minutes. In similar situations, it’s usually a perfect storm of “poor play by the leading team, great play by the trailing team, and whistle fortune for the trailing team.” Anyway, the following calls and non calls swung against Golden State.

3:57: Tony Parker drives at Klay Thompson and pushes off him in a fairly creative flop. 6th foul for Thompson, whose sulking form is replaced by Richard Jefferson. Of Thompson’s dismissal, Chris Webber remarks, “Luckily for them, they don’t need him for the rest of the game.” Oh, if only that were true.

3:14: Stephen Curry drives past Boris Diaw, turns, and kicks the ball out to Richard Jefferson. Gary Neal absorbs Curry’s momentum and “takes” the charge from Curry’s back. To editorialize, I thought this was a really bad call. You shouldn’t be able to draw a charge off a dude’s back, and Neal clearly wasn’t knocked over. You can tell because Neal’s knees bend as he squats himself down on the floor before splaying out. Awful call, but credit the Spurs for trying to glean every advantage, even in trying times.

2:20: Jarrett Jack finally stops jacking horrible long two-pointers in isolation and drives on Boris Diaw. Of course, the smarter process isn’t rewarded with better results. Diaw and Ginobili both bump Jack, knocking him to floor. No call, Spurs recover the flailing shot.

1:00: Carl Landry misses a jumper, recovers the rebound in the ensuing scrum, and it results in an over-the-back call, drawn by Boris Diaw. I thought this should have been a no-call, but you could probably talk me into the foul. It’s hard to make sense of a rebounding scrum. Anyway, another whistle against Golden State. Over the final four minutes, the Warriors only drew one foul and it was the intentional foul of Richard Jefferson that resulted in bricked free throws.

A lot of moments comprised this disappointment, and only some of them were somebody’s specific fault. It’s up to the Warriors to work on whatever they can control, of course. On Monday night, they should have controlled more of a situation that got away from them.

Many observers are looking for a common explanation for these evaporating Warriors leads, as we also saw this happen against Denver. I don’t believe in chalking this up to the roster being young or inexperienced. Many of the worst decisions have come from the more seasoned veterans. My theory can be summarized like this: The roster is made up of guys who can’t get to the rim. Easy baskets and free throws are hard to come by when nobody gets to the rim. Fortunately for the Warriors, they can live on glorious stretches of made threes. Unfortunately for the Warriors, they have little to subsist on when those shots aren’t falling. So the result is high peaks and low valleys. When the valley come near the end, it can look bad. The goal should either be acquiring a rim attacker in the offseason, or running such a seamless Spurs-like offense that open threes are plentiful at the end of games. I’d certainly settle for both, though.

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By: J.R. Smooth

How will San Antonio defend Golden State’s 3-point shooting? San Antonio was the NBA’s 12^th-best team at defending the three-ball during the regular season (based on raw-percentage), giving up the league’s fifth-fewest attempts. The Spurs finished with the third-ranked overall defense. One reason why is because they surrendered the fifth-best eFG%, at 48% (for an explanation on how effective field goal percentage is calculated, please click here).

In four regular season meetings against Golden State – the NBA’s top 3-point shooting team – San Antonio allowed an average 5.9-for-17 shooting mark from downtown (34.8%) per 100 possessions. The regular season’s Warriors aren’t giving Gregg Popovich sleepless nights. This new playoff version, on the other hand …

In six playoff games against Denver, Golden State took an average 24.6 3-pointers per 100 possessions, while converting on 9.9 of them – good enough for 40.1% (right in-line with their regular season percentage, 40.3%). As has been well-documented, Denver’s perimeter defense was historically bad. Will San Antonio do any better?

The top-five 3-point shooting teams during the 2012-13 regular season are as follows: Golden State, Miami, Oklahoma City, New York, and San Antonio. Since we’ve already discussed the Warriors shooting prowess in their regular season split with the Spurs, we will delve into San Antonio’s 3-point defense against the league’s other elite long-range teams. In eight combined games (whereby San Antonio went, 2-6) against Miami (0-2), Oklahoma City (2-2), and New York (0-2), the Spurs allowed an average of 21.7 3-pointers per contest – just over the league average of 19.9. Of those 21.7 attempts, Miami, Oklahoma City, and New York combined to convert 9.1 3-pointers per game – well over the league average of 7.2. This is good enough for a 41.2% mark from distance.

The Spurs must do one of two things in defending the 3-point line against Golden State:

1. Defend the shot better – in other words, have crisp rotations, closeout on shooters hard, hands held high, in opponent faces.
2. Minimize the amount of 3’s Golden State is able to attempt. Most of that begins and ends with clean rotations defensively. If San Antonio’s rotations are on point, the Warriors *should* have problems getting off looks, as good defensive rotations invariably lead to turnovers and shot clock violations.

However, there is room for a high-volume 3-point shooting team to get off lots of looks against San Antonio. The top-five 3-point shooting teams (in terms of attempts) for the 2012-13 season are as follows: New York, Houston, Los Angeles Lakers, Portland, and Atlanta.

In two regular season games against the Knicks, New York attempted 28 3-pointers per 100 possessions (3.4 shy of their season average of 31.4). In four regular season games against the Rockets, Houston attempted 28.6 3-pointers per 100 possessions (0.5 fewer than their season average of 29.1). In three games against Los Angeles, the Lakers attempted 25.5 3-pointers per 100 possessions (0.1 greater-than their season average of 25.4). In three games against the Trail Blazers, Portland attempted 24.2 3-pointers per 100 possessions (0.3 less-than their season average of 24.5). And in two games against the Hawks, Atlanta attempted 17 3-pointers per 100 possessions (7.3 fewer than their season average, 24.3).

Among volume 3-point shooting teams, San Antonio was able to drastically diminish 3-pointers attempted against only Atlanta. Something’s got to give. And whichever way it does will be very telling into who wins this series.

**All stats used courtesy of NBA.com/Stats

Game Info

• Tip Off: 6:30 PM PT
• Television: TNT, SNET1 (Canada)

San Antonio Spurs Team Profile

• Offensive Efficiency: 111.0 (1^st in NBA playoffs)
• Defensive Efficiency: 90.6 (1^st in NBA playoffs)

Scope the Opposition: 48 Minutes of Hell.

Preview: The San Antonio Spurs will host the Golden State Warriors tonight (note the early tip off time) in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals.

The Spurs have been waiting for their second round opponent for quite some time by virtue of handling their business and sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers in the opening round of the postseason.

Many have varying opinions on how this current series might play out, and the Warriors World staff is no exception. Here is how our predictions shake out:

• Rasheed Malek: Warriors in six.
• Ethan Sherwood Strauss: Spurs in five.
• Jack Winter: Spurs in five.
• Jesse Taylor: Spurs in seven.
• J.M. Poulard: Spurs in six.

There is an argument to be made this is the least compelling matchup of the postseason, but fans should nonetheless enjoy this series given the teams and players involved.

Both squads come into tonight’s head-to-head battle with a couple of interesting storylines. Granted they are flying under the radar in comparison to Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant’s postseason performances that seem to stand on opposite sides of the spectrum.

So, your links on these respective teams.

Golden State Warriors

• 2^nd round preview: Over at the No-Look Pass, I share my thoughts on the Dubs’ playoff run as well as how they stack up against the Spurs.
• 5-on-5: Pressure, matchups, X-factors and winners are discussed in ESPN.com’s most recent installment of 5-on-5. Our own Jack Winter and Ethan Sherwood Strauss chimed in on this one.
• Better Without Lee: Ethan Sherwood Strauss over at TrueHoop essentially goes bizarro Biggie and says “less Lee, less problems”.

San Antonio Spurs

• Five things learned about the Spurs: Andrew A. McNeil of 48 Minutes of Hell shares his thoughts on how the Spurs have looked in the playoffs.
• Stopping Stephen Curry: The San Antonio Express’ front page courtesy of the Warrior Wire.
• Scouting Warriors-Spurs (Insider): Amin Elhassan and Bradford Doolittle of ESPN.com preview the series. They discuss small ball, Andrew Bogut vs. Tim Duncan and dealing with Stephen Curry.

Questions or comments? Feel free to leave them in the comments section or you can contact me by email at [email protected].

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Harrison Barnes just played the best six games of his young NBA career.  For the underdog Warriors to have a more than a puncher’s chance in the Western Conference Semifinals against the San Antonio Spurs, he’ll need to be even better.

The pressure on Barnes isn’t as simple and superficial as that proclamation makes it sound.  Nobody is asking him to carry Golden State offensively the way they are Steph Curry, and his responsibilities in general in this series aren’t as strenuous as those of Andrew Bogut or Klay Thompson.  Barnes will be an ancillary piece this round much like he was the last one and all season long.

But his influence may prove much larger than that.

San Antonio is set in its ways.  They have a brilliant system on both ends of the floor and a great mix of players to run it; arguably no coach in the NBA gets more from a combination of strategy and personnel than Gregg Popovich.  It helps to have three future Hall-of-Famers and a wealth of dependable role players at his disposal, of course, but the Spurs success hinges on more than coach or player talent.  They’ve a true program in San Antonio, one of professional sports’ best, rooted in commitment, consistency and the potent mix of the two.

Plug and play is the Spurs motto.  They adhere to a certain set of basketball standards no matter who is on the floor.  They may change from one year to the next based on progression, regression and other measures, but San Antonio has utmost faith in the system it builds season by season.

2012-2013′s (in stark opposition to last season) has meant a staunch reliance on traditional lineups – five-man units that consist of at least two of Tim Duncan, Tiago Splitter, Boris Diaw, and DeJuan Blair.  As long as Popovich has his pair of real big men (just include Bonner for now) he worries not of San Antonio remaining trio.  The Spurs had just four lineups in the regular season that reached 100 minutes of floor-time; their normal starting and team-leading unit registered a paltry 364 minutes, making it the league’s 24th-most used group.  San Antonio’s second-most played? 153 minutes.  The third? 125 minutes.  The sixth? 65 minutes.

Plug and play.  It’s what they do.  It bears mentioning that much of that regular season variability had to do with injuries and Popovich’s reluctance to play his older stars major minutes, but the overlying point remains.  The Spurs pay little mind to faces on the court; what they care about most are positions, and this year that’s meant two-post lineups almost exclusively.

Among San Antonio’s 41(!) units that played at least 20 minutes during the regular season, only one of them utilized frontcourt small-ball the way the modern NBA does.  The remaining 40 groups – small sample size or not – all consisted of two traditional big men.  And looking at the numbers of that solitary downsized quintet, Popovich’s reluctance to play that lineup and other theoretical ones like it extended minutes makes sense.

To put it bluntly, they were bad.  Very bad.  San Antonio’s quintet of Tony Parker-Manu Ginobili-Danny Green-Kawhi Leonard-Tim Duncan played to a dismal net efficiency rating of -19.9, a mark second-to-last among the list of 41 units that played 20 minutes or more.  It’s important to note they did so in just 36 minutes of floor-time, a number miniscule enough to perhaps deem their poor showing irrelevant altogether.  But that factored with Popvich’s sheer hesitance to try other diminutive lineups means he knows something about his team’s makeup, and it’s clear he doesn’t like it.

The Spurs just don’t want to play small.

Golden State, then, needs to force their hand.  The best way to do so? An aggressive, engaged and effective Barnes.  Playing the role of nominal power forward, his blend of three-point shooting and one-dribble penetration can stretch Duncan, Splitter, Diaw, Blair or even Bonner beyond his limits as a shuffler and mover on defense.  Barnes (and Draymond Green) individually is the most direct means of exploiting the Warriors quickness advantage; the other centers around extra, skip and pop passes that force the San Antonio’s disciplined defense into inconsistent rotations.

Evidence supporting the Spurs lack of effective small-ball lineups is lacking; 36 minutes of a single unit just isn’t enough of a sample to draw concrete conclusions.  But Popovich knows the limits of his personnel better than anyone, and the fact he’s been unwilling to try other downsized combinations might mean he realizes they won’t work.  The Warriors don’t have a lot on their side in this series on the surface; coaxing the unknown and uncomfortable from San Antonio might be their best way to an upset, and Barnes is the influence that could do it.

*Statistical support for this piece provided by NBA.com and hoopdata.com.

Follow Jack Winter on Twitter.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NBA’s mid-range game is a lost art because it’s an inefficient one.

Remember in years past when analysts would bemoan a player’s lack of jump-shooting prowess from 15-22 feet? Those days are over – the people who cover the league have finally adapted to its sea-change with regard to offensive and defensive philosophies.

What are they? Basically, that a good offense is made by a majority of shot attempts coming near or beyond the three-point line and a good defense is marked my limiting them.  It’s simple logic; the closer a shot is the easier it becomes for the most part, and three-pointers, after all, are called that for a reason.

In terms of efficiency, a jumper outside the paint but inside the arc pales in comparison to shots closer and farther.  The team-wide league average on shots from 16-23 feet is a paltry 38%, while even attempts from 3-9 feet fall short of close to adequacy at 40%.  Meanwhile, the average team hits 64.6% of its shots at the rim and three-pointers yield an effective field goal percentage – a measure that takes that extra point into account when factoring efficiency – of 53.8%.

Attempts at the rim and from three-point range.  Shoot them.  Limit them.  Success.

The San Antonio Spurs, unsurprisingly, do both on both ends of the floor.  They ranked 10th in the league in shots from the restricted area and third in hyper-efficient corner three-point attempts during the regular season.  Conversely, they forced opponents into the second-most shots from mid-range, the fifth-most from inside the paint (non-restricted) and were among the top-nine teams in limiting three-point shots from both the corner and above-the-break.

Taking that into consideration, it hardly shocks that San Antonio was one of three teams – along with Miami and Oklahoma City, of course – to rank in the NBA’s top-seven of offensive and defensive rating.  Basically, they’re near elite at both ends of the floor.  Ho-hum.  This is Spurs basketball, the sports paragon of consistent dominance.

None of this bodes well for the Warriors offensively.  Golden State subsists on proficient shooting from beyond the arc more than ever these days without David Lee, and it’s the main reason optimists saw that potential upset in the first round against Denver coming – the Nuggets were arguably the league’s worst team at defending the three-point line in the regular season.

San Antonio is one of its best and most disciplined.  Good looks from long-range simply won’t come easy or often for Steph Curry and Klay Thompson against the Spurs brand of defense.  Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green could potentially feast when Gregg Popovich is playing two traditional big men, however, though that’s a strategy Golden State is best served not relying on.

The Warriors safest bet to score against San Antonio, then, might be a regularly counter-intuitive one: those inefficient mid-range jumpers.

Golden State took the sixth-most shots from that area during the regular season, a logical number considering the team’s wealth of good jump-shooters and general lack of penetration.  Such a reliance on those shots should spell doom for an offense normally – the five teams ahead of them all ranked 20th or below in efficiency – but the Warriors have the pieces necessary to beat that measured assertion.  They shot 41% from mid-range in the regular season, a mark that ranks them less than a point behind, ironically, second-place San Antonio.

Golden State is an elite jump-shooting team.  The NBA world knows that, but it’s mostly based off familiar images of Curry and Thompson effortlessly flicking three after three.  The Warriors have a stable of good shooters behind them on all levels, though, in players like Jarrett Jack, Carl Landry, Barnes and even the suddenly competent Green.

San Antonio’s ability to coax the opponent into long two-point jumpers is a strength, but Golden State has the personnel necessary to turn it into a weakness.  It’s a less than ideal strategy and one best not applied, but in the playoffs, when the competition is toughest, such a game within the games looms especially large.  And when you’re the underdog, that often means having to play and try to take advantage of one you’d rather avoid to pull off the upset.

*Statistical support for this piece provided by NBA.com and hoopdata.com.

Follow Jack Winter on Twitter.

 

By: Scott Horlbeck

1.  Before

Wait, David Lee is active tonight? I thought he couldn’t walk??? What does Mark Jackson have up his sleeve – hopefully not PED’s.

I know some people didn’t love David Lee’s 90 second cameo, but I got it. It had nothing to do with x’s and o’s. It was a human thing. It was an empathy thing. It was, “This could be the last time our All-Star, fan favorite and team leader gets the chance to play a playoff game at Oracle, so if the doctors say he can hold up for 90 seconds, then he’s going in there.”  At the very least, it was going to make the fans go nuts, bring the team closer together, and provide Lee with a memory he would never forgot. I loved it.

2. During: Courtsides? I thought Hammer was broke?

3. After: Draymond is a GAMER. I know he sometimes gets a little too excited and takes a bad shot or hacks somebody on defense, but think about the series he just had. Think about the confidence Jackson has in him. Think about the BIG minutes he played. Think about the fact the he’s a second round pick playing in the first playoff series of his life.

Regular season: 2.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 32-21-81%

Playoffs: 7.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 59-50-75%

GAMER ALERT!!!!!!

4. During: Third (Steph’s) Quarter

As quick as Lawson is, he knows he can’t give Steph an inch. But playing someone that tight is difficult, and the second you’re leaning one way or the other, you’re dead. And Steph understands that better than anyone.

Why are you leaving him?!?!?!?!!?!?!?!?!?!?

Oh and guess who made that pass…

5. During: I’m cutting him some slack because Iguodala was in his pocket all series, and he did hit some big shots in Denver in games 1 and 2, but overall, I just feel like Klay needs to be more aggressive offensively. At this point, everyone knows how good of a shooter he is. And when he does puts the ball on the floor, everyone knows it’s two dribbles — jump shot. But here’s the problem, No one fears the drive from the Klay. No one fears a pump fake and easy trip to the line. He’s become a defenses dream – predictable. So what’s the fix? Before more aggressive!!! When a guy is closing out hard, put your head down and go to the rim. Pump fake and jump into him. Drive and kick. Start making plays outside of just catch-and-shoot opportunities. Because until then, defenses are going to continue to play Klay the same way Denver did – in his pocket.

6.  After: AAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bogut was a monster all series, but game 6 was his coming out party. He was a animal on the glass and caught and finished just about everything Curry and Jack dropped off for him. But it’s wasn’t his 14 and 21 that impressed me most – nope – it was his defense at the rim. Not only did Bogut reject 4 shots, but he most have altered another 10. Look at the number of X’s inside the paint in Denver’s shot chart. That’s enough to get Kirk Goldsberry’s nether regions excited. I know Bogut has been battling injuries all year, and maybe didn’t have the impact we had all hoped for or expected, but in game 6 he was special.

7. After: The Play of the Game (or what I felt was the play of the game)

Guess who…

Did the Warriors win an “upset” over perception, or did they actually beat a better team? After watching the series and reflecting upon it, I’d conclude that Golden State was only a nominal underdog, not an actual one. The Warriors sans David Lee should beat the Gallo-less Nuggets. Were this series played out again, I’d pick the Warriors to take it 60%-70% of the time.

Forgive me for dwelling on the past as we’re supposed to immediately start previewing Spurs-Dubs. It’s just that Golden State’s first round victory continues to interest me, continues to place me in the homerish position of defending GSW’s status as rightful winner. They beat six consecutive Vegas spreads, with little market adjustment to how the series was unfolding. As Denver’s season lay in ruins, some observers blamed randomness for the destruction. I’ve had this argument on Twitter with a few people, and with Matt Moore of CBS, with whom I respectfully disagreed on the fortune factor. Golden State did not beat Denver on account of a shooting hot streak; Denver bequeathed a hot streak unto Golden State with typically absent perimeter defense.

The Denver Nuggets had a bad three-point defense all season (gave up the second most threes per game, right behind Charlotte) and the Warriors shoot the best percentage from downtown. Further helping Golden State’s cause, the Nuggets shoot poorly, bailing out GSW’s shaky, Denver-esque three-point defense. So Denver played to GSW’s strength and couldn’t take advantage of GSW’s weakness. Perhaps the Nuggets aren’t a worse team than the Warriors in terms of how they’d do against other playoff competition, but against Golden State? Yep, they’re fighting uphill.

In the first 4 games of the series, Curry “got loose” (George Karl’s term) for many an open three. That much is well documented, and it was expected by anyone who’d watched both teams closely  this season. Denver’s point guards are complete liabilities against three-point shooters. Ty Lawson’s too short to contest shots, and Andre Miller either can’t move or doesn’t bother.

What people couldn’t foresee was how Denver also ceded threes to the rookie duo of Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green. That Barnes shot well isn’t much of a shock. Green, on the other hand, surprised some people. While I’ll admit that Green’s 6-of-12 was anomalous given his .209 three-point shooting this year, he was also about as wide open as you’d expect a .209 three-point shooter to be. That’s fine and well, the Nuggets aren’t obligated to cover a shooter with his track record. The problem was that they guarded Harrison Barnes as though he was Draymond Green.

Harrison Barnes can actually hit an open three, and the Nuggets gave him a steady diet of them. Below, I’ve taken a snap shot of every three-pointer Barnes made this series, all 13 of them. The only time he faces anything close to a closeout is when the diminutive Ty Lawson takes a flail.

As Denver scattered to cover Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, players like Barnes and Draymond Green got just this open. With David Lee out, GSW spread the floor 4-out, ratcheting up their total three-point attempts to 24.5 per game from their regular season average of 19.9, while still hitting 40% of the tries. The stretched (and often trapping) Denver D also opened up easy opportunities for dump-offs to Andrew Bogut, who shot 63.2% in the series.

I understand how people can point to the final shooting results as inherently flukey. Barnes shot 40.6% from three! Green shot 50%! What luck! But merely citing the number is to act as though the defense played is meaningless–as though you’re allowed to barely try and claim “variance” when the shots fall. On nearly all their made threes, Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green were facing what might as well have been a high school defense. In Green’s case, he was open for a reason. You can defend the lack of defending, while also pointing out that Denver gave Draymond every opportunity to find the stroke that eluded him this season. In Barnes’ case, Denver was just spotting points to Golden State. Harrison faced a decent close-out on 4 of his 32 three-point attempts. The rest were essentially nationally televised shooting practice. Even a rookie will put up numbers if you neglect to guard him at all.

Even an average regular season team will beat a great one if the conditions are right. The Nuggets were a prototypical regular season performer, between the altitude advantage, depth, and pace that caught unprepared teams off-guard. In the playoffs, teams better acclimate to the altitude, and depth matters less. Subjectively, Denver was hurt by a lack of offensive structure (Karl’s style is more improvisational) and yes, the lack of a star who forces consistent strategic concessions over a series.

On a certain level, it is shocking to watch a 57-win team lose to a 47-win team. Chalking it all up to luck is to learn the wrong lesson, though. The lesson is that the regular season doesn’t tell us all we need to know about the postseason. It can greatly inform our expectations–for instance, I expect San Antonio to easily handle Golden State based on what both teams have done this year. The information is useful, but a total reliance on aggregate record and point differential is simplistic. Teams aren’t the same over the course of a season. They go through lulls, players get injured, new strategies are tinkered with. Stars play less, scrubs play more. There are a myriad of factors that explain why it’s foolish to base all expectations on record and point differential. So, coming off a series in which the “underdog” had the best player and best big man, we should probably question our process just a bit.

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