Most NBA General Managers agree that if a player has not had a breakout season by their fifth season in the league that they won’t ever have it.  Once a player has been in the league five years, you pretty much know what you are going to get.  The Warriors have a lot of players that have not been in the league for five years, so let’s take a look at which players still might be able to elevate their play in the coming seasons.  In the first part of this two part series, we will look at two specific segments of the roster.

First let’s divide the roster into segments.  The first segment will be made up of established NBA veterans who have already shown what they are about and what they will continue to be as basketball players.  This group includes, Baron Davis, Jason Richardson, Troy Murphy and Adonal Foyle.  With these players we pretty much know what to expect, none of them are going to surprise us with breakout seasons.  Murphy and Richardson are just entering the prime years of their careers and should continue to produce relatively similar numbers to what they posted last year.  Based on health and continued improvement in deficient areas, you can figure each of these players can post slightly better or worse numbers than what their career averages dictate.  Let’s examine each of these players from a more detailed standpoint.

Baron Davis:  Baron has been in the league for 7 seasons and is nearing the later stages of his prime years.  He is a former All-Star level player that has led a team into the playoffs.  He is surely capable of being the Warriors best player and could potentially be an elite player in the league if he can stay healthy for an entire year.  He established his career high in assists last season with 8.9 dimes per contest and it is likely that he can increase that number this season.  His career scoring mark was set in 03-04 with the Hornets at 22.9.  Last season he was nearly 5 points off his career high in scoring and with Richardson and Murphy on the roster it is doubtful that he would get enough shot attempts to equal that average unless he dramatically improved his shooting percentages from the three point line and the free throw line.  

Estimated Stat Line:      

G-69 MPG-38.5 FG%-42% 3P%-32% FT%-69% RPG-4.1 APG-9.9 SPG- 1.85 BPG-.30 TO-2.75 PF-3.6 PPG-19.9 

Jason Richardson:  Jason is entering his sixth season and he has proven to be a valuable starter in the league.  He had his career season last year averaging 23.2 points per game on 45% shooting.  He is entering his prime years and should continue to play at the peak of his abilities for several more seasons.  He is not an All-Star level performer; however that is mostly due to the performance of his team rather than his individual efforts.  He is going to be in the top 15 in scoring and is considered one of the best rebounding guards in the league averaging nearly 6 pulls per contest.  His biggest weaknesses are his defense and free throw shooting.  He has worked on his defense and has become serviceable in this area despite having to guard some of the top players in the league on a nightly basis.  His free throw shooting has only been better than 70% one time in his career and it has become a mental block for him recently.  

Estimated Stat Line:     

G-75 MPG-38.5 FG%-45% 3P%-36% FT%-69% RPG-6.2 APG-3.0 SPG- 1.35 BPG-.50 TO-2.1 PF-2.7 PPG-22.9 

Troy Murphy:  Murphy is one of the more consistent players on the roster and is valued by teammates and management more so than by the media, or fans of the team.  Perhaps if he was drafted by a different organization he could be a valued role player and fan favorite, but due to the losing ways of the Warriors organization he is known more for his limitations in the areas of slow foot speed, limited low post play and porous help defense than he is for being a versatile and skilled big man with above average rebounding skills and 3 point range.  He is in elite company in terms of statistics in the league averaging a double-double in points and rebounds.  During the 2005-06 season, only seven players who were eligible for leadership in the main statistical categories averaged a double-double for the entire season (listed in descending order of points per game) were Elton Brand, Shawn Marion, Kevin Garnett, Steve Nash, Tim Duncan, Dwight Howard and Troy Murphy.

Estimated Stat Line:     

G-72 MPG-32.5 FG%-44% 3P%-36% FT%-79% RPG-10.1 APG-1.5 SPG- 1.0 BPG-.47 TO-1.3 PF-3.2 PPG-14.4 

Adonal Foyle:  After nine seasons in the NBA Adonal Foyle is a known commodity.  He is a defensive minded, undersized Center with an above average ability to block shots.  He has worked on his offensive moves but due to his difficulty in catching the ball he will not ever get the opportunity to take enough shots to surpass his career 4.6 point scoring average.  His individual defense and shot blocking have declined in recent seasons and due to the fact that he has played with a superior rebounding power forward he has not been able to come close to his career high 7 rebounds per contest that was established in the 00-01 season.  Foyle can help a team with his energy and hustle and he will have nights where he dominates the game from a defensive standpoint, but those nights are much fewer and farther apart than they used to be.  He will be most effective if used sparingly as a defensive specialist and role model for the younger bigs on the roster.

Estimated Stat Line:     

G-78 MPG-20.5 FG%-49% 3P%-00% FT%-61% RPG-5.9 APG-.3 SPG- .50 BPG-1.7 TO-1.1 PF-2.7 PPG-4.4 

The next segment of the roster is made up of players that have been in the league for less than five seasons and are still capable of having a breakout type season.  Since the majority of the roster fits into this broad category I am going to break it down even further to put some perspective on the level of development and expectations of each of these players.  The first group includes players entering their fourth and fifth seasons in the league and should be reaching their full potential in terms of development.  This segment consists of fifth year players Mike Dunleavy and Devin Brown as well as fourth year players Zarko Cabarkapa, Mickael Pietrus and Keith McCloud. 

*The stat lines following the player profiles are what would be considered breakout seasons. 

Mike Dunleavy:  Although Dunleavy has already established himself as a valuable role player in the league, many still feel that he hasn’t reached his full potential.  It’s always concerning when a player takes a huge step backwards in terms of statistics from one season to the next, especially when no injuries were involved.  Last season he was a huge disappointment for Mike.  After signing a lucrative contract extension, he averaged only 11.5 points on 41% shooting.  If nothing else, fans hope he can at least get back to the form he showed two season ago when he averaged 13.4 points on 45% shooting.  Since he is entering his fifth season in the league it is still possible that he could “break out” and fulfill the potential that comes along with being the third overall pick in the draft.  In order to quiet his critics, Mike will have to improve in several areas of his game including defense, shooting percentage, rebounding and consistency.  If he can play aggressively and get more shot attempts as well as get to the foul line on a more consistent basis he will be ok.  He made some strides last season defensively but his lack of speed and athleticism at the small forward position are always going to be a hurdle.

Breakout Stat Line:     

G-80 MPG-30.5 FG%-46% 3P%-39% FT%-79% RPG-6.9 APG-4.3 SPG-1.0 BPG-.35 TO-1.9 PF-2.5 PPG-16.4 

Probability of Breakout= 40% 

Devin Brown:  Brown comes to the Warriors from the Utah Jazz in the Derek Fisher trade and will compete for minutes backing up at shooting guard and small forward.  His role and minutes will depend on what the Warriors decide to do with Mickael Pietrus.  If Pietrus is moved, it could open up a big opportunity for Brown to emerge as a valuable backup.  He has a championship ring as a member of the 2005 San Antonio Spurs but has had limited opportunities in his first four NBA campaigns with San Antonio and Utah.  Last season he received a career high 21.1 minutes per game but struggled shooting only 39% from the floor.   Brown went unpicked in the 2002 NBA Draft but was signed as a free agent by the San Antonio Spurs.

Breakout Stat Line:     

G-80 MPG-20.5 FG%-42% 3P%-35% FT%-77% RPG-2.5 APG-1.3 SPG-.9 BPG-.25 TO-1.0 PF-1.5 PPG-10.1 

Probability of Breakout= 20% 

Zarko Cabarkapa:  The native of Serbia and Montenegro has a wealth of skills for a 6’11 player and was considered the steal of the 2003 draft.  He appeared on the verge of breaking out for the Suns until he had his wrist broken by Danny Fortson while going up for a dunk in his first NBA start.  He finished that game with 17 points and 9 rebounds filling in for an injured Shawn Marion.  After the incident with Fortson, he was timid and lacked confidence…He was never the same.  The Suns moved him to Golden State for two future picks.  Since joining the Warriors, Zarko has shown flashes of brilliance, but has not received adequate playing time to showcase his arsenal of skills.  He has been inconsistent in his limited role and his lack of defense and rebounding may prevent him from reaching his full potential.  He may get a chance to play more minutes if Troy Murphy is moved this off-season, but this is a make or break season for him.  Regardless of how many minutes he receives, he is going to have to make the most of his opportunities and impact the game each and every minute that he is on the floor.

Breakout Stat Line:     

G-80 MPG-18.5 FG%-49% 3P%-40% FT%-79% RPG-4.9 APG-1.3 SPG-.9 BPG-.25 TO-.5 PF-1.5 PPG-11.9 

Probability of Breakout= 60% 

Michael Pietrus:  Air France is also in a make or break situation this season.  He is eligible to become a Free Agent after this season and will be playing for a contract, unless Chris Mullin extends him prior to the start of training camp, which is always a possibility depending on how the Warriors see him fitting into their future plans.  Assuming he is playing for a contract you can expect him to come off the bench with guns blazing and put up a substantial number of points in a short amount of time.  He seems to be best suited as a sixth man rather than a starter in the league.  His best attributes are his athleticism, defensive intensity and clutch shooting.  He is one of the Warriors best options with the shot clock winding down or at the end of a quarter.  His weaknesses are primarily on the mental aspects of the game.  He doesn’t make great decisions with the basketball and sometimes fails to recognize obvious situations on the floor.  He will make silly mistakes and tends to play a bit out of control or reckless at times.  If he can focus on defense and let the game slow down for him a bit he will be an extremely valuable bench player in the league and his best years are definitely ahead.

Breakout Stat Line:     

G-75 MPG-28.5 FG%-42% 3P%-32% FT%-70% RPG-3.5 APG-1.2 SPG-.75 BPG-.25 TO-1.5 PF-2.5 PPG-15.1 

Probability of Breakout= 70% 

Keith McLeod:  Traded along with Devin Brown and Andre Owens to the Golden State Warriors for Derek Fisher (July 12, 2006).  McLeod emerged during the 04-05 season starting 47 games at Point Guard for the Jazz and averaged a career high 26.1 minutes per game.  Keith posted career highs in scoring and assists that season with 7.8 and 4.5 respectively.  He lost playing time last year after the Jazz drafted Derron Williams.  McCleod was undrafted out of Bowling Green, but was signed as a free agent by the Minnesota Timberwolves (October 25, 2003)... Waived by the Timberwolves (January 7, 2004)...Signed by the Jazz as a free agent (September 30, 2004).

Breakout Stat Line:     

G-80 MPG-22.5 FG%-40% 3P%-30% FT%-80% RPG-2.0 APG-4.3 SPG-1.0 BPG-.25 TO-1.4 PF-2.5 PPG-8.1 

Probability of Breakout= 10% 

*Next week we will examine the third and final segment of the roster…The rookies, second and third year players.  This segment features some of the most interesting breakout candidates including Patrick O’bryant, Kosta Perovic, Ike Diogu, Chris Taft, Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins and Andre Owens.