After a scintillating six-game series win over the top-seeded Mavericks, the Warriors arrived in Salt Lake City this weekend with their eyes on a berth in the Western Conference Finals. To get there they’ll have to best a well-rounded Jazz team that features a number of tough matchups, from bruising forward Carlos Boozer to sharp-shooting big-man Mehmet Okur. Don Nelson ran circles around a Dallas team that featured no real interior scoring threat, but Jerry Sloan’s squad is unlikely to allow the Warriors to play their signature small-ball and escape unscathed. What can we expect to see in this most surprising of second-round match-ups, and what are the keys to victory for each team?

The Jazz are an old-school, traditional team that relies on precise execution and is fully comfortable in the half-court, on both sides of the ball. Their offense is built around three key players: Deron Williams, who is already an elite playmaker in only his second year in the league, Boozer, and Okur. Boozer will often be the first option; he likes to receive the ball in the mid-post, take a couple of dribbles to power inside, and go up with a half-hook from close-range. Alternately he’ll shoot a jumper from as far out as twenty feet, but his outstanding field goal percentage of 56% speaks to his ability to use his strength and touch to get good shots inside. Okur is a different type of big man – while he has the size to score in the paint, he is much more comfortable operating from the high post or wing extended, where he can use his length to get open jumpshots over (usually) slower defenders. Okur’s range extends all the way out to the three-point line, and he is Utah’s most dangerous threat from long distance.

This year’s Jazz, like teams of years past, run the pick-and-roll to perfection: look for Williams to run this play constantly with Boozer rotating to the hoop, or with Okur ducking out for a pick-and-pop jumper. The Illinois alumnus is a legitimate threat from beyond the stripe, but at 32% he does not want to be heaving three-pointers constantly. Look for the Warriors to sag off of Williams in the half-court offense, forcing him into a scoring role and making it more difficult for the Jazz’ big men to get good looks inside.

Utah’s other starters – combo guard Derek Fisher and combo forward Andrei Kirilenko – can both put the ball in the bucket, but are not especially adept at creating their own shot. Golden State must avoid giving Fisher open looks from the perimeter, while ensuring that AK-47, as the Russian forward is known, does not have a chance to use his athleticism to finish around the rim.  But for the Warriors, the key to stopping Utah’s offense will always be Boozer: if he is able to get the ball in single coverage within fifteen feet, he will do major damage. Expect to see Boozer fronted by Al Harrington or Andris Biedrins, and then doubled immediately and aggressively should he receive the entry pass. Not a particularly adept passer, Boozer can be slowed down by solid defense, but he will eat up smaller players if he gets the chance. He also makes his presence known on the boards, averaging an outstanding 11.6 rebounds over the course of the season. It’s vital for the Warriors to box out and hit the glass hard, or they will be stunned by a constant barrage of second-chance points. This will be especially important when the Warriors go zone: the 3-2 and 1-2-2 are good strategies for turning Utah into a jump-shooting team, but nothing is accomplished if missed jumpers are turned into easy putbacks off of offensive rebounds.

Fresh off of destroying the Mavericks to the tune of over 105 points a game, the Warriors offense is now well known for its frantic energy and exciting, wide-open style. In stark contrast to the Jazz’ slow-it-down approach, Golden State likes to run, run, run and take the first available open look. Nelson will instruct his players to take a single-minded strategy in this series: get to rim at all costs. In spite of their size, neither Boozer nor Okur is a shot-blocking threat, and the starting guard tandem of Williams and Fisher are not going to be able to stay in front of the Warriors’ smalls. In fact, Utah has only one above-average defender in the starting lineup – Kirilenko – and while he is one of the best in the league at changing shots, he can’t be a presence in the interior if he’s guarding a Warriors “forward” (i.e. Jason Richardson) on the perimeter. Baron Davis and Monta Ellis must make it a point to be aggressive in driving to the rim, as the Jazz simply has no one inside to stop them once they beat their man.

However, do look for Utah to apply hard fouls to discourage Golden State’s guards from penetrating consistently. Sloan coaches a tough team that does not like to give up easy shots; they rotate well and play excellent team defense in spite of their individual limitations. Davis and Stephen Jackson, who thrived in his role as top scorer (and defender!) in the Dallas series, must keep their composure and continue putting pressure on the Jazz’ defense. Granted the Warriors will shoot a number of threes – that’s by design at this point – but it will be very difficult for them to win in Energy Solutions Arena if they have to rely exclusively on perimeter shots. If the Warriors are to be successful over a seven-game series, they need to make Utah’s big men work on defense, and hope to get them in foul trouble. Again, Boozer is by far the biggest problem for this Warriors squad, since he’s such a load scoring inside and on the glass. If they can take him out of the game, even for a few minutes at a time, they should enjoy a clear advantage.

Quite frankly, this is a fairly evenly-matched series: while they play drastically different styles, the Warriors and Jazz both feature high-powered, efficient offenses, and both play scrappy, disruptive team defense. At the end of the day, two factors are likely to determine the winner of this second-round matchup: Davis’ shaky health, and the unpredictable benches of both teams. The Warriors’ star point guard turned in a tremendous performance in the last series, but with his mobility limited by a strained hamstring, it’s unclear how much of a factor he’ll be against the Jazz. Will he be able to play almost the entire game as he had been doing against Dallas? Will the Warriors be forced into a constant zone defense to protect their fragile point guard? Unquestionably the best player on either team, Davis can nonetheless only give as much as his legs allow him to. If he is fully healthy, or anything close to it, he gives the Warriors a huge advantage at the guard slot. If not, Monta Ellis absolutely must pick up the slack and recover from his awful first round, where he looked very much like a young player only two years removed from his senior prom.

The bench is the second “x-factor” that could swing the momentum in either direction. Matt Barnes (also suffering from a pulled hammy), Mickael Pietrus, and Al Harrington (likely relegated to a bench role after a subpar first round) are consistently inconsistent – the Warriors will hope to see more Dr. Jekyll and less Mr. Hyde. For the Jazz, Matt Harpring, Gordon Giricek, and Paul Millsap epitomize their team’s hard-nosed style. While these players are unlikely to take on a major scoring role, they can affect the game in a big way by playing tough defense, making open shots when available, and most importantly providing toughness against a Warriors team that has shown to be emotional to the point of instability. If the Jazz’ rotation players can get inside the heads of the Warriors stars – particularly Davis and Jackson – they will shift the momentum entirely.

This series is all about contrasting styles: fast versus slow, open versus structured, power versus finesse. The Warriors will try to force the Jazz to play at their speed, while Utah will attempt to assert its will against Nelson and his merry band of schmoes. Whichever team proves more successful in this regard is likely to find itself in the next round, competing for a shot at the NBA Finals. Homecourt advantage would seem to make the Jazz slight favorites, but with Oracle Arena giving the Warriors the greatest homecourt boost in recent memory, it might be more realistic to give the edge to Golden State in that area. This should be a hard-fought, exciting series, but I like the Warriors in six: they should split in Utah, win both at home, lose Game 5 but clinch again in front of the home crowd in Game 6. It’s certainly no lock, but after his first-round miracle, it’s hard to bet against Don Nelson in this year’s playoffs.