Maybe it’s the intense, dry, brain boiling heat of Las Vegas, or the conversation with outside basketball observers, but I feel a bit better than I did last week about the AR trade.

Trading young athletic forward Carlos Rogers, Anthony Randolph along with Kelena Azabuike, and fan favorite Ronny Turiaf to New York for all-star power forward David Lee, sent Warriors fans into a tail spin. This is a trade that angers fans because of ‘potential.’  Many feel that Randolph has more upside than David Lee.  This is a subjective and hopeful feeling that is fostered by the Warriors every time they draft a player and he has any kind of success.  As fans of a team that has made the playoffs once in the last 16 years, you have to allow yourself to hope. Hope can turn into tickets,  jerseys, and unrealistic player expectations.

Hope in the face of suffering is why I have 4 autographed Larry Hughes jerseys, why the arena was packed on draft night, and why the Warriors continue to draw some of the best attendance in the league.  If you scramble your roster every single year, you can always talk about how things are different.  There is always hope when there is change….if you market it correctly.  Change allows the Warriors sell tickets every year based on hope and potential. When a player they hyped as having amazing franchise turnaround capabilities gets traded for anyone short of a top 10 player, the fans have a violent reaction.

Face it, the Anthony Randolph trade is actually good for the Warriors.  Yes, it leaves me with yet another outdated autographed player jersey, but maybe the Warriors will let me trade it for a David Lee jersey. AR had potential, but it is a crap shoot if he ever realizes it.  His first year he wasn’t motivated, and needed a fire lit under him to get it together.  He bounced back with a great summer league, and a decent start to the season, but he was still a tweener without any solid back to the basket moves, an inconsistent jump shot and no real position.  AR is a project that may or may not pay off and a lot of that is dependent on his desire to work, improve, get better.

David Lee is an all star power forward who plays in an up-tempo system  and can be expected to put up similar numbers here in Golden State.  He works on his game, and tries hard every night.  He has character, maturity, and a high basketball IQ.  Warriors fans would have loved to have AR aspire to be a more athletic version of David Lee.

Lee has 40 lbs on AR, plays closer to the basket, generated a higher FG% in his first 2 years, is a better foul shooter,  rebounder,  and has shown improvement every year.  Lee plays a position that we haven’t had a solid starter in for decades.  The Warriors now have a pairing with Curry / Lee that could rival the Nash / Stoudemire combo that ran up and down courts in the west for years.  1 all star and 1 future all-star playing their actual positions, under Don Nelson, amazing.

Instead of rolling the dice on hope, we made a solid basketball move. It hurts, but it’s for the best.

From IshWarrior in the forum:

David Lee is probably the biggest Warriors’ FA signing…ever, but that’s not the point. Sure it is an improvement right now, we should have more wins than last year and we have a legitimate rebounding body right now, but it isn’t the most logical fix.

It’s my opinion that the Warriors needed to start looking at alternative directions for the team. After last year, the team became less about building around Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins (which many, including myself, argued for a couple years ago) and more about building around Steph Curry and the potential of Anthony Randolph.

The biggest deficiency in Warriors basketball is defense. It’s non-existent. Sure, our offense hits a high gear every once in a while and we have a single, or a string of, good games, but I think we all know very well that it won’t get the team very far (see 2006 playoffs). Signing a guy like David Lee who doesn’t really play a lick of defense is not addressing this very, very large concern. What he does, he does very well. He’ll get you some points, he’ll crash the boards, and he’ll run a pick-and-roll. He has defensive capability, but we don’t see it. Not the right move, Riley.

With the expectation of new ownership coming into town soon, meaning a new front office and new coaching, it is in the best interest of the fans that we give the “new” team as much flexibility as possible. Although Nelson and Riley might as well mail it in, that doesn’t mean go out there and continue the typical Warriors less-than-logical moves.

I know that this is just my opinion and several of you probably disagree, it was my dream scenario that the Warriors would stick with Steph Curry, Anthony Morrow (if we could get him to stick around), Anthony Randolph, Brandan Wright, and Ronny Turiaf. In the mean time, make the best of Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins. If they were a legitimate fit on this vision of the future, then go for it. If not, then send them out for young, cheap talent to go along with short (read: 1-year remaining), large contracts.

A year from now, that possibly meant a new owner: Larry Ellison. A new GM: Jerry West, Kevin Pritchard, or at least someone competent with a halfway decent track record. A new coach. And a roster consisting the aforementioned Stephen Curry, Anthony Randolph, Brandan Wright, Ronny Turiaf, hopefully Anthony Morrow, a flurry of expiring contracts, and maybe some young talent go to along with it. Sure the CBA is being re-written and this year was the year of free-agents, but the point is the Warriors would have a great deal of flexibility under a new ruler.

That’s what I feel should be in the best interest of fans. We need a totally new movement when the new owner comes around, and we’re putting a longer time-table on a redefined team with contracts like these. At best, we’re putting ourselves onto the road to no-man’s land. We could add some more talent and be a .500 team, not making the playoffs, and not getting a great pick. Not the goal of a basketball team. We should take note of the work by Sam Presti and Kevin Pritchard. Making smart moves to go with youth, stack up draft picks, scout well, and build a brighter future. Right now, the only thing keeping me sane is the wallet of the very well connected Larry Ellison, Stephen Curry, and the light, although not very bright, of the not-so-close future.

/Rant.

From poster Top Dog in the forum, discussion here

1) It would further clog our already crowded front court, which would…

2) Limit the development of our young 4s and 5s. Whatever you think of AR, BW, or EU, the only way we’ll find out what we really have with any of them is via playing time, which will already be at a premium because of Beans and Ronny.

3) Lee is many things, but a true center ain’t one of ‘em. The Knicks got away with playing Lee at the 5 because the East is still pretty weak overall. The West has teams with legitimately huge power forwards and centers: Bynum/Gasol, Cousins, Yao, TD, Nene, Kaman–I’ll even include Sideshow Bob Lopez in Phoenix because he really showed me something last year, and he’s definitely enormous. The point is, David Lee is barely a 5 in the East, and wouldn’t be able to hang physically in the West. As a result, his rebounding numbers would go down and our already porous frontcourt D would erode even further.

4) If you’re comparing Monta and Lee, you can’t just put their numbers up side by side even though Monta comes out looking pretty good in that analysis. Basketball is such a team sport that you have consider the context. And the Knicks provided Lee with an incredible environment for putting up gaudy numbers last year.

-D’Antoni’s system inflates offensive numbers by running constantly and requiring the players to play absolutely no D, which leaves them with more energy on the other end

-Shitty team = lots of touches
-Plenty of blowouts = opponents’ putting their scrubs in early on
-Weak competition at his position on the team = ample minutes

Now before you say that Monta enjoyed the same advantages (which he did, with the possible exception of the touches), you have to consider whether those advantages would be there for Lee in the case of a trade. And they wouldn’t. Lee wouldn’t get as many minutes or touches because our front court is too crowded. The W’s will not be great, but they’ll be more competitive than the Knicks were last season, which means there will be fewer blowouts. The competition in the West will mean Lee has to work a hell of a lot harder to get his.

Don’t get me wrong: I like David Lee as a player. If we didn’t have so many similar players already, I’d be more interested. But other than a dominant low post force–which, to quote Rick Pitino, ain’t walkin’ through that door–this team needs a legit 2 or 3 more than anything.

So the W’s should try to trade Monta for Granger or Iguodala or just wait. Monta will put up impressive numbers again, and eventually the offers for him will improve. He’s a special, if frustrating, offensive player, and we can’t afford to further f#$% up our team just get him off of it.