Multiple media outlets are reporting that the Warriors have traded Monta Ellis, Ekpe Udoh and Kwame Brown to Milwaukee for Andrew Bogut and Stephen Jackson.
I have been a lifelong Warriors fan and this has to rank as one of the worst moves of all time.
Yes, it opens up minutes for Thompson and gets Curry to run the show, but Monta was worth a lot more than that. The Warriors essentially got nothing in return. Kwame Brown for Stephen Jackson would have been a fair trade. Ellis for Bogut, lobsided, but if Bogut recovers may turn out to be a positive for the Warriors a year down the road (30% odds). Why Udoh? He helped the team win more than most other players, and is the only player of size that could play on that roster (sorry Andris; 2 shot attempts a week won’t cut it). Only positive I see is Ellis’ awful body language, ball-domination, poor shot selection and shooting percentage are gone, which hopefully turns the Warriors into a bunch of team-oriented overachievers with some chemistry who may be able to win 30 games with a healthy Curry; if KryptoNate runs the show, I refuse to watch a single game for the rest of the season (and this is not a light hearted statement).
Peter Guber: You taught a story telling class at UCLA (great class!). What kind of a story is this?!?
I think Nate Robinson is fine as a 7th or 8th guy off the bench giving you 15-20mins a game. He is a spark-plug when he’s on. My problem with him is that he’s streaky. I have seen him score 30+ in new york, and have also seen him cough up game winning opportunities (i.e. last night against Boston… twice). Not the type of starting point guard to run a team with little star power.
In your mind Ellis is worth alot more then what we traded for. In reality he is not. There is a reason why u dont see teams offering alot for him. He is not liked by most “experts”. He is really overrated gaurd who shoots 20+ shots a game to get 21 points and turns the ball over 3+ times and is a ball stopper. The risk of Bogut re injuring himself is well worth the chance of us getting a undeniable top 5 center in the league. Alot of people concider him the 3rd best center in the league behind Howard and Bynum when he is healthy. Only thing I agree with is that I dont know why we had to throw Udoh in to get him. We were already taking on Jackson.
You can try and justify this all you want but the fact is the warriors gave up 3 players who were playing good basketball, significantly contributing to wins for 2 players who , one is an overage pre-madonna who’s been a distraction off the court, wasn’t playing well, and hasn’t been anything close to a good teammate. Another player who’s career has been plagued by injury , won’t play this year, maybe not next year and who’s team has been better off without him. Did I mention the bucks are now the 8th seed in the East. Terrible trade anyway you cut it, not getting any picks back ,taking back Stephen Jackson who epitomizes everything that critics of monta harp on, except he’s out of his prime, won’t improve, can’t play d ever and is notoriously a volume shooter with no discipline.
This trade rewards Larry Riley who has consistently ; underdrafted for his teams draft position, trades away talent for nothing, doesn’t pursue quality free agents, turns down good trades. Now he has another shot to do it all again.
Ummm, Daniel, when healthy, Bogut is the 2nd best defensive centre in the game, and more than capable offensively. When healthy, he’s not just a solid complimentary player, but someone you CAN build around.
Monta, on the other hand, has proven that while he puts up great box-score numbers, doesn’t actually help the Warriors win games – check out the note from Hollinger below, or his Win Score, or his Wins Produced.
• John Hollinger (Insider) on how the Warriors can pick between trading Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry: “A fun little tidbit from the new stats gizmo at NBA.com: The Warriors are plus-15 this season when Steph Curry plays and Monta Ellis are on the bench but minus-119 when Ellis plays and Curry is on the pine. The season before, they were plus-23 with Curry and no Ellis but minus-191 with Ellis and no Curry. The season before that, the tally was plus-122 with Curry and no Ellis and minus-89 for the opposite. So, for the three seasons those two have been together, Golden State has outscored its opponents by 160 points when Curry plays and Ellis sits despite being badly outscored overall. And, in the opposite situation, the Warriors have been outscored by 399 points. In other words, if you’re going to deal one of the two, you deal Ellis in a hot second.”
No, sorry…the movement to tout NBA metrics like MLB isn’t there, yet. Not by a long shot. There are factors those numbers do not address whatsoever, and until they do, they are very flawed. They do not address the *type* of shot taken in a miss, specifically in Monta’s case, shot-clock bailouts time after time because the Warriors haven’t had anyone that can create his own shot since Baron Davis/(younger) Stephen Jackson. It also doesn’t account for the lack of talent around him and the effect on his statistics, nor does it account for the lack of a suitable backup/playermaker/scorer and the adverse affect on Ellis’ playing time…which, of course, also was detrimental given he’s played the most or near-most minutes in the league for the last few years.
Can those metrics address those issues? No, they can’t…and thus their veracity is called into immediate and irrevocable question.
Bogut is a very good defensive center, but this is the end of it…has Milwaukee won? You’re talking about how Ellis can’t be built around, and that’s fine, I don’t really disagree despite loving his talent — but what have the Bucks done with Bogut? They’ve done less, overall, although the couple years of Warriors’ success obviously came with Baron Davis and Captain Jack at the top of their games…odd, though, Ellis was considered nothing but an asset when he had talent around him, no?
This is simple…the trade starts off poorly because the Warriors took on Stephen Jackson’s salary and gave away Udoh, plus won’t see their new acquisitions until next season, at which point they’ll have hoped to have gotten rid of Jackson…which will be difficult because of the salary. That’s a large hole to get out from before the 2013 season even starts. Milwaukee has Ellis and Udoh contrubing *now*, so they can assess and go into the offseason with a clear idea of what else might help.
Warriors? No, they have no idea how Bogut and Jackson will fit in. So guess what? Another disadvantage.
Don’t let your numbers do the talking for you…metrics work in baseball because they mostly speak to a controlled situation: pitcher vs. batter. You’ll note defensive metrics are still routinely called into question because there are a lot of factors influencing those metrics.
And in basketball? Even more factors weigh in, so again, I can’t give the stats as much credence as you apparently are.
In the very short term, this trade obviously means the Warriors are tanking this season, seeing as how they traded for two players that haven’t played in weeks with injuries, and they traded away a guard when Stephen Curry can’t be relied on to play a half of basketball w/o tweaking his ankle.
In the long term, to me this means they’re essentially blowing the team up…I’m halfway expecting a follow-up trade w/ Curry, since they’ve shopped him some already. Stephen Jackson will obviously be gone as soon as possible, and Bogut, while competent, has absolutely zero about him to build around. He’s a solid complimentary player when healthy, but no game changer.
More than anything, though…Larry Riley, I’m sorry, is not a good GM. Monta Ellis is a top-flight scorer, a play-maker, and has closer ability. He traded him AND the Warriors best post defender in Udoh for an aging guy we know the Warriors want to get rid of as soon as possible (Jackson) and a solid complimentary player.
Chris Kaman should’ve been the target, not Bogut. Or, if you’re going to trade Ellis and not get much in return, get rid of Beidrins contract while you’re at it.
Rss
I have been a lifelong Warriors fan and this has to rank as one of the worst moves of all time.
Yes, it opens up minutes for Thompson and gets Curry to run the show, but Monta was worth a lot more than that. The Warriors essentially got nothing in return. Kwame Brown for Stephen Jackson would have been a fair trade. Ellis for Bogut, lobsided, but if Bogut recovers may turn out to be a positive for the Warriors a year down the road (30% odds). Why Udoh? He helped the team win more than most other players, and is the only player of size that could play on that roster (sorry Andris; 2 shot attempts a week won’t cut it). Only positive I see is Ellis’ awful body language, ball-domination, poor shot selection and shooting percentage are gone, which hopefully turns the Warriors into a bunch of team-oriented overachievers with some chemistry who may be able to win 30 games with a healthy Curry; if KryptoNate runs the show, I refuse to watch a single game for the rest of the season (and this is not a light hearted statement).
Peter Guber: You taught a story telling class at UCLA (great class!). What kind of a story is this?!?
Just curious, why you don’t like Nate Robinson on this team?
I think Nate Robinson is fine as a 7th or 8th guy off the bench giving you 15-20mins a game. He is a spark-plug when he’s on. My problem with him is that he’s streaky. I have seen him score 30+ in new york, and have also seen him cough up game winning opportunities (i.e. last night against Boston… twice). Not the type of starting point guard to run a team with little star power.
In your mind Ellis is worth alot more then what we traded for. In reality he is not. There is a reason why u dont see teams offering alot for him. He is not liked by most “experts”. He is really overrated gaurd who shoots 20+ shots a game to get 21 points and turns the ball over 3+ times and is a ball stopper. The risk of Bogut re injuring himself is well worth the chance of us getting a undeniable top 5 center in the league. Alot of people concider him the 3rd best center in the league behind Howard and Bynum when he is healthy. Only thing I agree with is that I dont know why we had to throw Udoh in to get him. We were already taking on Jackson.
PS glad we got rid of Jackson.
You can try and justify this all you want but the fact is the warriors gave up 3 players who were playing good basketball, significantly contributing to wins for 2 players who , one is an overage pre-madonna who’s been a distraction off the court, wasn’t playing well, and hasn’t been anything close to a good teammate. Another player who’s career has been plagued by injury , won’t play this year, maybe not next year and who’s team has been better off without him. Did I mention the bucks are now the 8th seed in the East. Terrible trade anyway you cut it, not getting any picks back ,taking back Stephen Jackson who epitomizes everything that critics of monta harp on, except he’s out of his prime, won’t improve, can’t play d ever and is notoriously a volume shooter with no discipline.
This trade rewards Larry Riley who has consistently ; underdrafted for his teams draft position, trades away talent for nothing, doesn’t pursue quality free agents, turns down good trades. Now he has another shot to do it all again.
Ummm, Daniel, when healthy, Bogut is the 2nd best defensive centre in the game, and more than capable offensively. When healthy, he’s not just a solid complimentary player, but someone you CAN build around.
Monta, on the other hand, has proven that while he puts up great box-score numbers, doesn’t actually help the Warriors win games – check out the note from Hollinger below, or his Win Score, or his Wins Produced.
• John Hollinger (Insider) on how the Warriors can pick between trading Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry: “A fun little tidbit from the new stats gizmo at NBA.com: The Warriors are plus-15 this season when Steph Curry plays and Monta Ellis are on the bench but minus-119 when Ellis plays and Curry is on the pine. The season before, they were plus-23 with Curry and no Ellis but minus-191 with Ellis and no Curry. The season before that, the tally was plus-122 with Curry and no Ellis and minus-89 for the opposite. So, for the three seasons those two have been together, Golden State has outscored its opponents by 160 points when Curry plays and Ellis sits despite being badly outscored overall. And, in the opposite situation, the Warriors have been outscored by 399 points. In other words, if you’re going to deal one of the two, you deal Ellis in a hot second.”
No, sorry…the movement to tout NBA metrics like MLB isn’t there, yet. Not by a long shot. There are factors those numbers do not address whatsoever, and until they do, they are very flawed. They do not address the *type* of shot taken in a miss, specifically in Monta’s case, shot-clock bailouts time after time because the Warriors haven’t had anyone that can create his own shot since Baron Davis/(younger) Stephen Jackson. It also doesn’t account for the lack of talent around him and the effect on his statistics, nor does it account for the lack of a suitable backup/playermaker/scorer and the adverse affect on Ellis’ playing time…which, of course, also was detrimental given he’s played the most or near-most minutes in the league for the last few years.
Can those metrics address those issues? No, they can’t…and thus their veracity is called into immediate and irrevocable question.
Bogut is a very good defensive center, but this is the end of it…has Milwaukee won? You’re talking about how Ellis can’t be built around, and that’s fine, I don’t really disagree despite loving his talent — but what have the Bucks done with Bogut? They’ve done less, overall, although the couple years of Warriors’ success obviously came with Baron Davis and Captain Jack at the top of their games…odd, though, Ellis was considered nothing but an asset when he had talent around him, no?
This is simple…the trade starts off poorly because the Warriors took on Stephen Jackson’s salary and gave away Udoh, plus won’t see their new acquisitions until next season, at which point they’ll have hoped to have gotten rid of Jackson…which will be difficult because of the salary. That’s a large hole to get out from before the 2013 season even starts. Milwaukee has Ellis and Udoh contrubing *now*, so they can assess and go into the offseason with a clear idea of what else might help.
Warriors? No, they have no idea how Bogut and Jackson will fit in. So guess what? Another disadvantage.
Don’t let your numbers do the talking for you…metrics work in baseball because they mostly speak to a controlled situation: pitcher vs. batter. You’ll note defensive metrics are still routinely called into question because there are a lot of factors influencing those metrics.
And in basketball? Even more factors weigh in, so again, I can’t give the stats as much credence as you apparently are.
In the very short term, this trade obviously means the Warriors are tanking this season, seeing as how they traded for two players that haven’t played in weeks with injuries, and they traded away a guard when Stephen Curry can’t be relied on to play a half of basketball w/o tweaking his ankle.
In the long term, to me this means they’re essentially blowing the team up…I’m halfway expecting a follow-up trade w/ Curry, since they’ve shopped him some already. Stephen Jackson will obviously be gone as soon as possible, and Bogut, while competent, has absolutely zero about him to build around. He’s a solid complimentary player when healthy, but no game changer.
More than anything, though…Larry Riley, I’m sorry, is not a good GM. Monta Ellis is a top-flight scorer, a play-maker, and has closer ability. He traded him AND the Warriors best post defender in Udoh for an aging guy we know the Warriors want to get rid of as soon as possible (Jackson) and a solid complimentary player.
Chris Kaman should’ve been the target, not Bogut. Or, if you’re going to trade Ellis and not get much in return, get rid of Beidrins contract while you’re at it.